Talent, Luck or Vision?

An simple python reproduction and modification of the 2022 Ig Nobel Prize for Economics
"Which Is More Important: Talent or Luck?"

Rules

Original rules

1. There are N people in the town with different talent. Each person has a starting capital 10
2. There are N_E/2 luck events and N_E/2 unlucky events randomly occur in the town at every iteration
3. When a person meets a lucky event, the capital is doubled based on talent
4. When a person meets an unlucky event, the capital becomes half

Extra rules:

5. Unlucky event does not occurs if an individual's has high caution
6. Lucky event occurs if it is within an individual's vision

Experiments:

For simplicity, I make the town to one-dimension

N = 100, N_E= 50, town_size = 4000

• People with higher talent have more chances to seize the luck
• People with higher caution have fewer chances to meet unlucky events
• People with higher vision have more chances to meet lucky events

Distribution of Talent and vision :

Note: Distributions of talent, caution and vision are independent

Scenario 1: Different talent (similar to the original experiment)

The final capital is not so relevent to talent. Color indicates the talent of each person in town.

Scenario 2: Different talent and caution

The final capital is relevent to caution. Color indicates the talent of each person in town.

Scenario 3: Different talent and vision

The final capital is more relevent to vision. Color indicates the talent of each person in town.

Credits

The ideas of adding caution and vision come from my understanding of an YouTube video made by 老高與小茉

Reference

@article{biondo2018talent,
  title={Talent vs Luck: the role of randomness in success and failure},
  author={Biondo, A Pluchino and Rapisarda, A and others},
  journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:1802.07068},
  year={2018}