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Biggest_Misses.ipynb
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Biggest_Misses.ipynb
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{
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"# Fantasy Football\n",
"\n",
"So - this is my first year participating in a fantasy football league. I enjoy football, but I typically only keep up with a few teams, so drafting an actual team was a bit daunting. So, like most things, I relied on data to help me out. I spent some time researching strategy, looking at projections, and even simulating some drafts. Draft day came and I felt pretty good about my team...but now I am currently 0-3 for the season. Ha.\n",
"\n",
"I started to get a bit curious about why I was doing so poorly. Typically my \"projected\" points were pretty good each week, but my team just never seemed to deliver.\n",
"\n",
"Thus, here is my first post looking at the biggest out performers and the biggest misses relative to ESPN projections. All data are from ESPN. So - lets get to it!"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 1,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"import psycopg2\n",
"import pandas.io.sql as psql\n",
"import pandas as pd\n",
"from matplotlib import pyplot as plt\n",
"from __future__ import division #now division always returns a floating point number\n",
"import numpy as np\n",
"import seaborn as sns\n",
"%matplotlib inline"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 12,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": false
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"db = psycopg2.connect(\"dbname='fantasyfootball' host='localhost'\")\n",
"\n",
"def get_combined_df():\n",
" actual_points = psql.read_sql(\"\"\"\n",
" select name, team, position, sum(total_points) as points_actual \n",
" from scoring_leaders_weekly\n",
" group by name, team, position;\"\"\", con=db)\n",
" predicted_points = psql.read_sql(\"\"\"\n",
" select name, team, position, sum(total_points) as points_predicted\n",
" from next_week_projections\n",
" group by name, team, position;\"\"\", con=db)\n",
" combined_df = actual_points.merge(predicted_points, \n",
" on=['name', 'team', 'position'], how='left')\n",
" combined_df = combined_df.dropna()\n",
" combined_df = combined_df[combined_df['points_predicted'] > 0]\n",
" combined_df['points_diff'] = combined_df.points_actual - combined_df.points_predicted\n",
" combined_df['points_diff_pct'] = (combined_df.points_actual - combined_df.points_predicted) / combined_df.points_predicted\n",
" return combined_df\n",
"\n",
"def get_top_bottom(df):\n",
" group = df.groupby('position')\n",
" top_list = []\n",
" bottom_list = []\n",
" for name, data in group:\n",
" top = data.sort('points_diff', ascending=False)\n",
" top_list.append(top.head())\n",
" tail = top.tail()\n",
" tail = tail.sort('points_diff')\n",
" bottom_list.append(tail)\n",
" top_df = pd.concat(top_list)\n",
" bottom_df = pd.concat(bottom_list)\n",
" return top_df, bottom_df\n",
"\n",
"def run_analysis():\n",
" combined_df = get_combined_df()\n",
" top, bottom = get_top_bottom(combined_df)\n",
" return combined_df, top, bottom"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"# RESULTS\n",
"\n",
"For the results, I decided to show the top 5 out performers and the top 5 under performers for the cumulative season based on the absolute point difference (not the percentage). First, here are the **out performers**. This is pretty interesting. Travis Benjamin, for example, has in the first 3 weeks produced an extra 33.6 fantasy points relative to expectations. Not too bad."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 13,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": false,
"scrolled": true
},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"combined_df, top_1, bottom_1 = run_analysis()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 14,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": false
},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div style=\"max-height:1000px;max-width:1500px;overflow:auto;\">\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>name</th>\n",
" <th>team</th>\n",
" <th>position</th>\n",
" <th>points_actual</th>\n",
" <th>points_predicted</th>\n",
" <th>points_diff</th>\n",
" <th>points_diff_pct</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>384</th>\n",
" <td>Broncos</td>\n",
" <td>Broncos</td>\n",
" <td>D</td>\n",
" <td>55</td>\n",
" <td>36.5</td>\n",
" <td>18.5</td>\n",
" <td>0.506849</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>281</th>\n",
" <td>Cardinals</td>\n",
" <td>Cardinals</td>\n",
" <td>D</td>\n",
" <td>48</td>\n",
" <td>31.4</td>\n",
" <td>16.6</td>\n",
" <td>0.528662</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>490</th>\n",
" <td>Cowboys</td>\n",
" <td>Cowboys</td>\n",
" <td>D</td>\n",
" <td>23</td>\n",
" <td>15.9</td>\n",
" <td>7.1</td>\n",
" <td>0.446541</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>248</th>\n",
" <td>Titans</td>\n",
" <td>Titans</td>\n",
" <td>D</td>\n",
" <td>23</td>\n",
" <td>16.1</td>\n",
" <td>6.9</td>\n",
" <td>0.428571</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>25</th>\n",
" <td>Jets</td>\n",
" <td>Jets</td>\n",
" <td>D</td>\n",
" <td>34</td>\n",
" <td>30.7</td>\n",
" <td>3.3</td>\n",
" <td>0.107492</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>255</th>\n",
" <td>Stephen Gostkowski</td>\n",
" <td>NE</td>\n",
" <td>K</td>\n",
" <td>40</td>\n",
" <td>26.2</td>\n",
" <td>13.8</td>\n",
" <td>0.526718</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>309</th>\n",
" <td>Josh Brown</td>\n",
" <td>NYG</td>\n",
" <td>K</td>\n",
" <td>39</td>\n",
" <td>32.4</td>\n",
" <td>6.6</td>\n",
" <td>0.203704</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>247</th>\n",
" <td>Brandon McManus</td>\n",
" <td>Den</td>\n",
" <td>K</td>\n",
" <td>34</td>\n",
" <td>30.0</td>\n",
" <td>4.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.133333</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>307</th>\n",
" <td>Steven Hauschka</td>\n",
" <td>Sea</td>\n",
" <td>K</td>\n",
" <td>34</td>\n",
" <td>30.7</td>\n",
" <td>3.3</td>\n",
" <td>0.107492</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>496</th>\n",
" <td>Mason Crosby</td>\n",
" <td>GB</td>\n",
" <td>K</td>\n",
" <td>32</td>\n",
" <td>32.1</td>\n",
" <td>-0.1</td>\n",
" <td>-0.003115</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>375</th>\n",
" <td>Tom Brady</td>\n",
" <td>NE</td>\n",
" <td>QB</td>\n",
" <td>77</td>\n",
" <td>52.2</td>\n",
" <td>24.8</td>\n",
" <td>0.475096</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>204</th>\n",
" <td>Andy Dalton</td>\n",
" <td>Cin</td>\n",
" <td>QB</td>\n",
" <td>69</td>\n",
" <td>51.5</td>\n",
" <td>17.5</td>\n",
" <td>0.339806</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>13</th>\n",
" <td>Marcus Mariota</td>\n",
" <td>Ten</td>\n",
" <td>QB</td>\n",
" <td>57</td>\n",
" <td>45.4</td>\n",
" <td>11.6</td>\n",
" <td>0.255507</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>488</th>\n",
" <td>Tyrod Taylor</td>\n",
" <td>Buf</td>\n",
" <td>QB</td>\n",
" <td>64</td>\n",
" <td>53.1</td>\n",
" <td>10.9</td>\n",
" <td>0.205273</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>107</th>\n",
" <td>Ryan Mallett</td>\n",
" <td>Hou</td>\n",
" <td>QB</td>\n",
" <td>37</td>\n",
" <td>28.6</td>\n",
" <td>8.4</td>\n",
" <td>0.293706</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>265</th>\n",
" <td>Karlos Williams</td>\n",
" <td>Buf</td>\n",
" <td>RB</td>\n",
" <td>37</td>\n",
" <td>16.9</td>\n",
" <td>20.1</td>\n",
" <td>1.189349</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>295</th>\n",
" <td>Marcel Reece</td>\n",
" <td>Oak</td>\n",
" <td>RB</td>\n",
" <td>20</td>\n",
" <td>3.3</td>\n",
" <td>16.7</td>\n",
" <td>5.060606</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>457</th>\n",
" <td>Dion Lewis</td>\n",
" <td>NE</td>\n",
" <td>RB</td>\n",
" <td>40</td>\n",
" <td>24.8</td>\n",
" <td>15.2</td>\n",
" <td>0.612903</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>99</th>\n",
" <td>DeAngelo Williams</td>\n",
" <td>Pit</td>\n",
" <td>RB</td>\n",
" <td>38</td>\n",
" <td>24.2</td>\n",
" <td>13.8</td>\n",
" <td>0.570248</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>134</th>\n",
" <td>Devonta Freeman</td>\n",
" <td>Atl</td>\n",
" <td>RB</td>\n",
" <td>51</td>\n",
" <td>37.2</td>\n",
" <td>13.8</td>\n",
" <td>0.370968</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>171</th>\n",
" <td>Rob Gronkowski</td>\n",
" <td>NE</td>\n",
" <td>TE</td>\n",
" <td>54</td>\n",
" <td>34.0</td>\n",
" <td>20.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.588235</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>241</th>\n",
" <td>Anthony Fasano</td>\n",
" <td>Ten</td>\n",
" <td>TE</td>\n",
" <td>17</td>\n",
" <td>0.3</td>\n",
" <td>16.7</td>\n",
" <td>55.666667</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>219</th>\n",
" <td>Austin Seferian-Jenkins</td>\n",
" <td>TB</td>\n",
" <td>TE</td>\n",
" <td>23</td>\n",
" <td>9.0</td>\n",
" <td>14.0</td>\n",
" <td>1.555556</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>319</th>\n",
" <td>Gary Barnidge</td>\n",
" <td>Cle</td>\n",
" <td>TE</td>\n",
" <td>20</td>\n",
" <td>6.7</td>\n",
" <td>13.3</td>\n",
" <td>1.985075</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>272</th>\n",
" <td>Travis Kelce</td>\n",
" <td>KC</td>\n",
" <td>TE</td>\n",
" <td>37</td>\n",
" <td>27.9</td>\n",
" <td>9.1</td>\n",
" <td>0.326165</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>258</th>\n",
" <td>Travis Benjamin</td>\n",
" <td>Cle</td>\n",
" <td>WR</td>\n",
" <td>51</td>\n",
" <td>17.4</td>\n",
" <td>33.6</td>\n",
" <td>1.931034</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>414</th>\n",
" <td>Larry Fitzgerald</td>\n",
" <td>Ari</td>\n",
" <td>WR</td>\n",
" <td>62</td>\n",
" <td>34.1</td>\n",
" <td>27.9</td>\n",
" <td>0.818182</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>174</th>\n",
" <td>Rishard Matthews</td>\n",
" <td>Mia</td>\n",
" <td>WR</td>\n",
" <td>43</td>\n",
" <td>15.9</td>\n",
" <td>27.1</td>\n",
" <td>1.704403</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>250</th>\n",
" <td>James Jones</td>\n",
" <td>GB</td>\n",
" <td>WR</td>\n",
" <td>44</td>\n",
" <td>26.2</td>\n",
" <td>17.8</td>\n",
" <td>0.679389</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>394</th>\n",
" <td>Julian Edelman</td>\n",
" <td>NE</td>\n",
" <td>WR</td>\n",
" <td>39</td>\n",
" <td>23.8</td>\n",
" <td>15.2</td>\n",
" <td>0.638655</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" name team position points_actual \\\n",
"384 Broncos Broncos D 55 \n",
"281 Cardinals Cardinals D 48 \n",
"490 Cowboys Cowboys D 23 \n",
"248 Titans Titans D 23 \n",
"25 Jets Jets D 34 \n",
"255 Stephen Gostkowski NE K 40 \n",
"309 Josh Brown NYG K 39 \n",
"247 Brandon McManus Den K 34 \n",
"307 Steven Hauschka Sea K 34 \n",
"496 Mason Crosby GB K 32 \n",
"375 Tom Brady NE QB 77 \n",
"204 Andy Dalton Cin QB 69 \n",
"13 Marcus Mariota Ten QB 57 \n",
"488 Tyrod Taylor Buf QB 64 \n",
"107 Ryan Mallett Hou QB 37 \n",
"265 Karlos Williams Buf RB 37 \n",
"295 Marcel Reece Oak RB 20 \n",
"457 Dion Lewis NE RB 40 \n",
"99 DeAngelo Williams Pit RB 38 \n",
"134 Devonta Freeman Atl RB 51 \n",
"171 Rob Gronkowski NE TE 54 \n",
"241 Anthony Fasano Ten TE 17 \n",
"219 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB TE 23 \n",
"319 Gary Barnidge Cle TE 20 \n",
"272 Travis Kelce KC TE 37 \n",
"258 Travis Benjamin Cle WR 51 \n",
"414 Larry Fitzgerald Ari WR 62 \n",
"174 Rishard Matthews Mia WR 43 \n",
"250 James Jones GB WR 44 \n",
"394 Julian Edelman NE WR 39 \n",
"\n",
" points_predicted points_diff points_diff_pct \n",
"384 36.5 18.5 0.506849 \n",
"281 31.4 16.6 0.528662 \n",
"490 15.9 7.1 0.446541 \n",
"248 16.1 6.9 0.428571 \n",
"25 30.7 3.3 0.107492 \n",
"255 26.2 13.8 0.526718 \n",
"309 32.4 6.6 0.203704 \n",
"247 30.0 4.0 0.133333 \n",
"307 30.7 3.3 0.107492 \n",
"496 32.1 -0.1 -0.003115 \n",
"375 52.2 24.8 0.475096 \n",
"204 51.5 17.5 0.339806 \n",
"13 45.4 11.6 0.255507 \n",
"488 53.1 10.9 0.205273 \n",
"107 28.6 8.4 0.293706 \n",
"265 16.9 20.1 1.189349 \n",
"295 3.3 16.7 5.060606 \n",
"457 24.8 15.2 0.612903 \n",
"99 24.2 13.8 0.570248 \n",
"134 37.2 13.8 0.370968 \n",
"171 34.0 20.0 0.588235 \n",
"241 0.3 16.7 55.666667 \n",
"219 9.0 14.0 1.555556 \n",
"319 6.7 13.3 1.985075 \n",
"272 27.9 9.1 0.326165 \n",
"258 17.4 33.6 1.931034 \n",
"414 34.1 27.9 0.818182 \n",
"174 15.9 27.1 1.704403 \n",
"250 26.2 17.8 0.679389 \n",
"394 23.8 15.2 0.638655 "
]
},
"execution_count": 14,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"top_1"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Now here are the **under performers**. These are the people you don't want to be playing...For example, C.J. Anderson comes in at a whopping 42 points under expectation. Who is my running back you ask... Drew Brees takes the cake, though, under performing by 46.2 points on the season. He was injured, though."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 17,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": false
},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div style=\"max-height:1000px;max-width:1500px;overflow:auto;\">\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>name</th>\n",
" <th>team</th>\n",
" <th>position</th>\n",
" <th>points_actual</th>\n",
" <th>points_predicted</th>\n",
" <th>points_diff</th>\n",
" <th>points_diff_pct</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>45</th>\n",
" <td>Colts</td>\n",
" <td>Colts</td>\n",
" <td>D</td>\n",
" <td>12</td>\n",
" <td>34.4</td>\n",
" <td>-22.4</td>\n",
" <td>-0.651163</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>223</th>\n",
" <td>Dolphins</td>\n",
" <td>Dolphins</td>\n",
" <td>D</td>\n",
" <td>14</td>\n",
" <td>36.3</td>\n",
" <td>-22.3</td>\n",
" <td>-0.614325</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>213</th>\n",
" <td>Texans</td>\n",
" <td>Texans</td>\n",
" <td>D</td>\n",
" <td>12</td>\n",
" <td>32.1</td>\n",
" <td>-20.1</td>\n",
" <td>-0.626168</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>470</th>\n",
" <td>Lions</td>\n",
" <td>Lions</td>\n",
" <td>D</td>\n",
" <td>14</td>\n",
" <td>27.4</td>\n",
" <td>-13.4</td>\n",
" <td>-0.489051</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>141</th>\n",
" <td>Chargers</td>\n",
" <td>Chargers</td>\n",
" <td>D</td>\n",
" <td>10</td>\n",
" <td>23.1</td>\n",
" <td>-13.1</td>\n",
" <td>-0.567100</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>366</th>\n",
" <td>Adam Vinatieri</td>\n",
" <td>Ind</td>\n",
" <td>K</td>\n",
" <td>5</td>\n",
" <td>31.5</td>\n",
" <td>-26.5</td>\n",
" <td>-0.841270</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>24</th>\n",
" <td>Matt Prater</td>\n",
" <td>Det</td>\n",
" <td>K</td>\n",
" <td>8</td>\n",
" <td>30.9</td>\n",
" <td>-22.9</td>\n",
" <td>-0.741100</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>461</th>\n",
" <td>Phil Dawson</td>\n",
" <td>SF</td>\n",
" <td>K</td>\n",
" <td>13</td>\n",
" <td>35.8</td>\n",
" <td>-22.8</td>\n",
" <td>-0.636872</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>399</th>\n",
" <td>Andrew Franks</td>\n",
" <td>Mia</td>\n",
" <td>K</td>\n",
" <td>14</td>\n",
" <td>33.6</td>\n",
" <td>-19.6</td>\n",
" <td>-0.583333</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>193</th>\n",
" <td>Josh Scobee</td>\n",
" <td>Pit</td>\n",
" <td>K</td>\n",
" <td>16</td>\n",
" <td>32.1</td>\n",
" <td>-16.1</td>\n",
" <td>-0.501558</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>21</th>\n",
" <td>Drew Brees</td>\n",
" <td>NO</td>\n",
" <td>QB</td>\n",
" <td>28</td>\n",
" <td>74.2</td>\n",
" <td>-46.2</td>\n",
" <td>-0.622642</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>251</th>\n",
" <td>Andrew Luck</td>\n",
" <td>Ind</td>\n",
" <td>QB</td>\n",
" <td>41</td>\n",
" <td>69.5</td>\n",
" <td>-28.5</td>\n",
" <td>-0.410072</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>426</th>\n",
" <td>Sam Bradford</td>\n",
" <td>Phi</td>\n",
" <td>QB</td>\n",
" <td>27</td>\n",
" <td>55.5</td>\n",
" <td>-28.5</td>\n",
" <td>-0.513514</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>477</th>\n",
" <td>Teddy Bridgewater</td>\n",
" <td>Min</td>\n",
" <td>QB</td>\n",
" <td>28</td>\n",
" <td>55.5</td>\n",
" <td>-27.5</td>\n",
" <td>-0.495495</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>428</th>\n",
" <td>Peyton Manning</td>\n",
" <td>Den</td>\n",
" <td>QB</td>\n",
" <td>43</td>\n",
" <td>67.7</td>\n",
" <td>-24.7</td>\n",
" <td>-0.364845</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>20</th>\n",
" <td>C.J. Anderson</td>\n",
" <td>Den</td>\n",
" <td>RB</td>\n",
" <td>6</td>\n",
" <td>48.0</td>\n",
" <td>-42.0</td>\n",
" <td>-0.875000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>276</th>\n",
" <td>Marshawn Lynch</td>\n",
" <td>Sea</td>\n",
" <td>RB</td>\n",
" <td>19</td>\n",
" <td>55.0</td>\n",
" <td>-36.0</td>\n",
" <td>-0.654545</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>184</th>\n",
" <td>DeMarco Murray</td>\n",
" <td>Phi</td>\n",
" <td>RB</td>\n",
" <td>18</td>\n",
" <td>50.3</td>\n",
" <td>-32.3</td>\n",
" <td>-0.642147</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>311</th>\n",
" <td>Jeremy Hill</td>\n",
" <td>Cin</td>\n",
" <td>RB</td>\n",
" <td>20</td>\n",
" <td>50.0</td>\n",
" <td>-30.0</td>\n",
" <td>-0.600000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>416</th>\n",
" <td>Lamar Miller</td>\n",
" <td>Mia</td>\n",
" <td>RB</td>\n",
" <td>15</td>\n",
" <td>42.8</td>\n",
" <td>-27.8</td>\n",
" <td>-0.649533</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>16</th>\n",
" <td>Zach Ertz</td>\n",
" <td>Phi</td>\n",
" <td>TE</td>\n",
" <td>8</td>\n",
" <td>22.0</td>\n",
" <td>-14.0</td>\n",
" <td>-0.636364</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>386</th>\n",
" <td>Benjamin Watson</td>\n",
" <td>NO</td>\n",
" <td>TE</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>15.4</td>\n",
" <td>-11.4</td>\n",
" <td>-0.740260</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>226</th>\n",
" <td>Mychal Rivera</td>\n",
" <td>Oak</td>\n",
" <td>TE</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>12.0</td>\n",
" <td>-11.0</td>\n",
" <td>-0.916667</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>136</th>\n",
" <td>Jeff Cumberland</td>\n",
" <td>NYJ</td>\n",
" <td>TE</td>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>10.8</td>\n",
" <td>-9.8</td>\n",
" <td>-0.907407</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>227</th>\n",
" <td>Martellus Bennett</td>\n",
" <td>Chi</td>\n",
" <td>TE</td>\n",
" <td>16</td>\n",
" <td>25.0</td>\n",
" <td>-9.0</td>\n",
" <td>-0.360000</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>296</th>\n",
" <td>Alshon Jeffery</td>\n",
" <td>Chi</td>\n",
" <td>WR</td>\n",
" <td>7</td>\n",
" <td>37.4</td>\n",
" <td>-30.4</td>\n",
" <td>-0.812834</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>123</th>\n",
" <td>Calvin Johnson</td>\n",
" <td>Det</td>\n",
" <td>WR</td>\n",
" <td>24</td>\n",
" <td>48.7</td>\n",
" <td>-24.7</td>\n",
" <td>-0.507187</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>32</th>\n",
" <td>Andre Johnson</td>\n",
" <td>Ind</td>\n",
" <td>WR</td>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>27.9</td>\n",
" <td>-23.9</td>\n",
" <td>-0.856631</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>87</th>\n",
" <td>Demaryius Thomas</td>\n",
" <td>Den</td>\n",
" <td>WR</td>\n",
" <td>30</td>\n",
" <td>52.5</td>\n",
" <td>-22.5</td>\n",
" <td>-0.428571</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>105</th>\n",
" <td>Mike Evans</td>\n",
" <td>TB</td>\n",
" <td>WR</td>\n",
" <td>10</td>\n",
" <td>32.4</td>\n",
" <td>-22.4</td>\n",
" <td>-0.691358</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" name team position points_actual points_predicted \\\n",
"45 Colts Colts D 12 34.4 \n",
"223 Dolphins Dolphins D 14 36.3 \n",
"213 Texans Texans D 12 32.1 \n",
"470 Lions Lions D 14 27.4 \n",
"141 Chargers Chargers D 10 23.1 \n",
"366 Adam Vinatieri Ind K 5 31.5 \n",
"24 Matt Prater Det K 8 30.9 \n",
"461 Phil Dawson SF K 13 35.8 \n",
"399 Andrew Franks Mia K 14 33.6 \n",
"193 Josh Scobee Pit K 16 32.1 \n",
"21 Drew Brees NO QB 28 74.2 \n",
"251 Andrew Luck Ind QB 41 69.5 \n",
"426 Sam Bradford Phi QB 27 55.5 \n",
"477 Teddy Bridgewater Min QB 28 55.5 \n",
"428 Peyton Manning Den QB 43 67.7 \n",
"20 C.J. Anderson Den RB 6 48.0 \n",
"276 Marshawn Lynch Sea RB 19 55.0 \n",
"184 DeMarco Murray Phi RB 18 50.3 \n",
"311 Jeremy Hill Cin RB 20 50.0 \n",
"416 Lamar Miller Mia RB 15 42.8 \n",
"16 Zach Ertz Phi TE 8 22.0 \n",
"386 Benjamin Watson NO TE 4 15.4 \n",
"226 Mychal Rivera Oak TE 1 12.0 \n",
"136 Jeff Cumberland NYJ TE 1 10.8 \n",
"227 Martellus Bennett Chi TE 16 25.0 \n",
"296 Alshon Jeffery Chi WR 7 37.4 \n",
"123 Calvin Johnson Det WR 24 48.7 \n",
"32 Andre Johnson Ind WR 4 27.9 \n",
"87 Demaryius Thomas Den WR 30 52.5 \n",
"105 Mike Evans TB WR 10 32.4 \n",
"\n",
" points_diff points_diff_pct \n",
"45 -22.4 -0.651163 \n",
"223 -22.3 -0.614325 \n",
"213 -20.1 -0.626168 \n",
"470 -13.4 -0.489051 \n",
"141 -13.1 -0.567100 \n",
"366 -26.5 -0.841270 \n",
"24 -22.9 -0.741100 \n",
"461 -22.8 -0.636872 \n",
"399 -19.6 -0.583333 \n",
"193 -16.1 -0.501558 \n",
"21 -46.2 -0.622642 \n",
"251 -28.5 -0.410072 \n",
"426 -28.5 -0.513514 \n",
"477 -27.5 -0.495495 \n",
"428 -24.7 -0.364845 \n",
"20 -42.0 -0.875000 \n",
"276 -36.0 -0.654545 \n",
"184 -32.3 -0.642147 \n",
"311 -30.0 -0.600000 \n",
"416 -27.8 -0.649533 \n",
"16 -14.0 -0.636364 \n",
"386 -11.4 -0.740260 \n",
"226 -11.0 -0.916667 \n",
"136 -9.8 -0.907407 \n",
"227 -9.0 -0.360000 \n",
"296 -30.4 -0.812834 \n",
"123 -24.7 -0.507187 \n",
"32 -23.9 -0.856631 \n",
"87 -22.5 -0.428571 \n",
"105 -22.4 -0.691358 "
]
},
"execution_count": 17,
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "execute_result"
}
],
"source": [
"bottom_1"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Next, I wanted to take a look at the distribution of point differences by position. The below chart shows that the median player in all positions is under performing, except for TE which is pretty close to zero. There are a few break out WRs and quite a bunch of under performing running backs. The spread is also pretty wide for most of the positions."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 21,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": false
},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
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q+Uj5aDqKItTXWapdb2/PmtKPyOZQyaCIWr1yLtWECcdz9dVfW/NYkrcxpR4Y2iWfjS31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\n/g94AwZYP8A9sgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\n",
"text/plain": [
"<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10c541f10>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"ax = sns.boxplot(combined_df.points_diff, groupby=combined_df.position)\n",
"plt.title(\"Distribution of Point Differences by Position\")\n",
"sns.despine()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"I also looked at the distribution of actual points by position. One thing you hear in fantasy is to select RBs early because they are high variance players. Meaning that you suffer more by getting a lower ranked RB than a lower ranked QB. This is also due to the fact that a lot more RBs are getting drafted than QBs. Below is the distribution for all players and provides a general sense."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 23,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": false
},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"image/png": 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"text/plain": [
"<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0x10ccf1810>"
]
},
"metadata": {},
"output_type": "display_data"
}
],
"source": [
"ax = sns.boxplot(combined_df.points_actual, groupby=combined_df.position)\n",
"plt.title(\"Distribution of Actual Points by Position\")\n",
"sns.despine()"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"To see if the high variance difference is playing out, we can look at the top 12 quarterbacks and top 36 running backs so far in the season (assume 12 team league with 1 starting QB and 3 starting RBs). You can see below that indeed the RBs standard deviation is quite a bit higher (about 7 points) than the QBs."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 34,
"metadata": {
"collapsed": false
},
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div style=\"max-height:1000px;max-width:1500px;overflow:auto;\">\n",
"<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
" <th></th>\n",