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3.1.1 robustness_checks.R
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3.1.1 robustness_checks.R
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# First robustness check: are year-ahead WEO Fall forecasts different from WEO current-year January forecasts? -----
# Fall-spring data
load("../When_where_and_why_material/intermediate_data/rgdp_cleaned.RData")
rgdp_fall_spring <- x
load("../When_where_and_why_material/intermediate_data/rgdp_jan_update.RData")
rgdp_jan <- x %>% select(-variable2)
rgdp_fall_spring_clean1 <- rgdp_fall_spring %>%
select(country_code, year, variable3)
merge(rgdp_jan,rgdp_fall_spring_clean1) %>%
as_tibble() %>%
mutate(no_change = case_when(variable1 != variable3 ~ 0,
T ~ 1)) %>%
summarise(mean_no_change = mean(as.numeric(no_change), na.rm = T))
# Second robustness check: are current-year WEO Spring forecasts different from WEO current-year July forecasts? -----
update <- readRDS("../When_where_and_why_material/intermediate_data/rgdp_update_cleaned.RDS")
update_july_clean <- update %>%
select(country_code, year, variable1)
load("../When_where_and_why_material/intermediate_data/rgdp_cleaned.RData")
rgdp_fall_spring <- x
rgdp_fall_spring_clean2 <- rgdp_fall_spring %>%
select(country_code, year, variable2)
merge(update_july_clean,rgdp_fall_spring_clean2) %>%
as_tibble() %>%
mutate(no_change = case_when(variable1 != variable2 ~ 0,
T ~ 1)) %>%
summarise(mean_no_change = mean(as.numeric(no_change), na.rm = T))