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---
layout: default
subtitle: Decision Making Using Scenarios
---
<div class=home_flex>
<div class=home_text>
<p>
Decision making in the face of
<a href="theory/multiple-plausible-futures/">multiple plausible futures</a> is
emerging as a key capability in the face of global and climate change. The
future is described not by forecasts or probability distributions, but by
multiple "<a href="theory/scenario-development/">scenarios</a>". This is also
called <a href="theory/dmdu/">Decision making under deep uncertainty</a>.
</p>
<p>
We want to make decisions that are "<a href="theory/robust-decisions/"
>robust</a
>" and "<a href="theory/adaptive-decisions/">adaptive</a>" even when our knowledge
of the future is shaky.
</p>
<p>Different assumptions and hypotheses can be explored using <a href="theory/exploratory-modelling/"
>exploratory modelling</a>, <a href="theory/scenario-development/">scenario development</a>
or "<a href="theory/stress-testing/">stress testing</a>" of decision alternatives.
</p>
<p>
We can <a href="theory/management-options/">design better management options</a> by
evaluating their <a href="theory/robustness-metrics/">robustness</a>, anticipating
<a href="theory/vulnerability-analysis/">vulnerabilities</a>,
reasoning about <a href="theory/value-of-information/">future information</a> and
<a href="theory/uncertainty-delegation/">responsibilities</a>,
and planning <a href="theory/adaptive-pathways">adaptive pathways</a>,
<a href="theory/signposts/">signposts</a> and
<a href="theory/triggers/">triggers</a>.
</p>
<p>
This website synthesises reference materials about theory, software tools, and
examples for decision making in the face of multiple plausible futures. If in
doubt, start <a href="theory/multiple-plausible-futures/">here</a>.
</p>
<p>
This is a community resource. We welcome contributions on
<a href="https://github.com/uncertainfutures/uncertainfutures.github.io/wiki"
>GitHub</a
>
</p>
</div>
<div class="home_img">
<object type="image/svg+xml" data="images/Uncertain futures building graphic_221221_linked.svg">
<img src="images/Uncertain futures building graphic_221221_linked.svg" />
</object>
</div>
</div>