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<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd">
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<p> </p>
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<td><a href="http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_65fd71ff0100he10.html"><img src="pic/mulu.jpg" alt="返回目录" width="343" height="65" border="0" /></a></td>
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<p align="center" style='text-align:center;
'><b><span
style='font-size:24.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>教你炒股票</span></b><b><span style='font-size:24.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">15</span></b><b><span style='font-size:
24.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>：没有趋势，没有背驰</span></b></p>
<p align="center" style='text-align:center;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(2006-12-08 11:55:57)</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;
'>有人很关心诸如庄家、主力之类的事情，但散户、庄家的位次分野这类事情不过是市场之</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>不患</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>下的</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>患</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>，对本</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">ID</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>所解《论语》熟悉的，对此都很容易理解。有些东西是超越散户、庄家的位次分野的，这是市场之根，把握了，所谓散户、庄家的位次分野就成了笑话。如果真喜欢听有关庄家的逸事、秘闻，以后有空本</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">ID</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>可以说点，而且还可以告诉你如何阻击、搞死庄家，这一点，环视国内，没有比本</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">ID</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>更有经验的了。</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;
color:#323E32;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>对于市场走势，有一个是</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>不患</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>的，就是走势的三种分类：上涨、下跌、盘整。所有走势都可以分解成这三种情况。这是一个最简单的道理，而这才是市场分析唯一值得依靠的基础。很多人往往忽视最简单的东西，去搞那些虚头八脑的玩意。而无论你是主力、散户、庄家，都逃不过这三种分类所交织成的走势。</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;
color:#323E32;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>那么，何谓上涨、下跌、盘整？下面给出一个定义。首先必须明确的是，所有上涨、下跌、盘整都建立在一定的周期图表上，例如在日线上的盘整，在</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">30</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>分钟线上可能就是上涨或下跌，因此，一定的图表是判断的基础，而图表的选择，与上面所说交易系统的选择是一致的，相关于你的资金、性格、操作风格等。</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span></b><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;'>上涨：最近一个高点比前一高点高，且最近一个低点比前一低点高。</span></b></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><b><span style='font-size:
14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;'>下跌：最近一个高点比前一高点低，且最近一个低点比前一低点低。</span></b></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><b><span style='font-size:
14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;'>盘整：最近一个高点比前一高点高，且最近一个低点比前一低点低；或者最近一个高点比前一高点低，且最近一个低点比前一低点高。</span></b></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;
color:#323E32;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>操作的关键不是定义，而是如何充分理解定义而使得操作有一个坚固的基础。其中的困难在于如何去把握高点和低点，因为高点、低点是有其级别的，在</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">30</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>分钟图上看到的高点，可能在周线图上什么都没看到。为此，必须要均线系统来过滤，也就是前面常说的</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>吻</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>的概念，只有在</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>吻</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>前后出现的高、低点才有意义。</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;
color:#323E32;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>（注：下图盘整的定义低点有个小错误，实在找不到好的例图了，凑合看吧。后期趋势和盘整的定义都有改变，后期为准。）</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> <img
src="015.files/image001.gif" alt="" width="1276" height="669" v:shapes="_x0000_i1025" /></span><span style='font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"><a
href="http://photo.blog.sina.com.cn/showpic.html#blogid=4aeb5d150100kg0w&url=http://s7.sinaimg.cn/orignal/4aeb5d15n91fb051ef9e6"
target="_blank"></a></span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;
'>这里，首先要搞清楚</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>吻</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>是怎样产生的。如果一个走势，连短线均线都不能突破，那期间出现的高、低点，肯定只是低级别图表上的，在本级别图表上没有意义。当走势突破短期均线却不能突破长期均线，就会形成</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>飞吻</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>；当走势突破长期均线马上形成陷阱，就会形成</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>唇吻</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>；当走势突破长期均线出现一定的反复，就会形成</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>湿吻</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>。</span><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#3366FF;'>由此可见，</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;
'>吻</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;
'>的分类是基于对原趋势的反抗程度，</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;
'>飞吻</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;
'>是基本没有任何反抗力，</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;
'>唇吻</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;
'>的力度也一般，而</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;
'>湿吻</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;
'>，就意味着力度有了足够的强度，而一切的转折，基本都是从</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#3366FF;'>湿吻</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;
'>开始的。</span></b></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;
color:#323E32;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#3366FF;'>转折，一般只有两种：</span></b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;'>一、</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#339966;'>湿吻</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#339966;'>后继续原趋势形成陷阱后回头制造出转折；二、出现盘整，以时间换空间地形成转折。</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;
'>第二种情况暂且不说，第一种情况，最大的标志就是所谓的</span><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:red;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:red;
'>背驰</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:red;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span></b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>了。</span><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:red;'>必须注意：没有趋势，没有背驰。</span></b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>在盘整中是无所谓</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>背驰</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>的，这点是必须特别明确的。</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;'>还有一点是必须注意的，这里的所有判断都只关系到两条均线与走势，和任何技术指标都无关。</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;
color:#323E32;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>如何判断</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>背驰</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>？首先定义一个概念，称为缠中说</span><b><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:red;'>禅趋势力度：</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>前一</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>吻</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>的结束与后一</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>吻</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>开始由短线均线与长期均线相交所形成的面积。</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;
'>在前后两个同向趋势中</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;
'>当缠中说禅趋势力度比上一次缠中说禅趋势力度要弱，就形成</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#3366FF;'>背驰</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;
'>。</span></b></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;
'>按这个定义，是最稳妥的办法，但唯一的</span><b><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:red;
'>缺点</span></b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>是必须等再次接吻后才能判断，这时候，走势离真正的转折点会已经有一点距离了。如何</span><b><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#3366FF;'>解决这个问题：</span></b><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:red;
'>第一种方法，看低一级别的图，从中按该种办法找出相应的转折点。</span></b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>这样和真正的低点基本没有太大的距离。</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
'><b><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:red;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span></b><b><span style='font-size:18.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:red;
'>还有一种方法，</span></b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>技巧比较高，首先再定义一个概念，称为</span><b><span style='font-size:16.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:red;'>缠中说禅趋势平均力度</span></b><span style='font-size:
14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:red;'>：</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;'>当下与前一</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;'>吻</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;'>的结束时短线均线与长期均线形成的面积除以时间。因为这个概念是即时的，马上就可以判断当下的缠中说禅趋势平均力度与前一次缠中说禅趋势平均力度的强弱对比，一旦这次比上次弱，就可以判断</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;'>背驰</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#3366FF;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#3366FF;'>即将形成，然后再根据短线均线与长期均线的距离，一旦延伸长度缩短，就意味着真正的低部马上形成。</span><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#339966;'>按这种方法，真正的转折点基本就可以完全同时地抓住。但有一个缺陷，就是风险稍微大点，且需要的技巧要高点，对市场的感觉要好点。</span></b></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;
color:#323E32;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>纯粹的两条均线的</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">K</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>线图，就足以应付最复杂的市场走势了。当然，如果没有这样的看图能力，可以参照一下技术指标，例如</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">MACD</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>等，关于各技术指标的应用，以后会陆续说到。</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;
color:#323E32;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> (</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>娇注：这里说的上涨和下跌趋势是以吻前后的高低点来定义，和中枢后定义的上涨下跌不同</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>这里说的趋势，有可能就是后面中枢定义后的盘整）</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;'><b><span style='font-size:
24.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>每日解盘（</span></b><b><span style='font-size:24.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">2006-12-11 13:44:29 </span></b><b><span
style='font-size:24.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>）</span></b></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;line-height:15.75pt;
'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Verdana;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"><a href="http://blog.sina.com.cn/u/1215172700" target="_blank"><b><span style='font-family:宋体;color:#C2460B;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"><span
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">缠中说禅</span></span></b></a></span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;'>：</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Verdana;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"><br />
<span style='color:#999999'>2006-12-11 15:25:14</span> [</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;'>匿名</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Verdana;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">] </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;'>摄影之友</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"><br />
2006-12-11 15:16:08<br />
</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;'>博主</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Verdana;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">:</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;'>你不说盘</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;'>让我更郁闷</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Verdana;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">....</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;'>主席不也说过</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">:</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;'>不管风吹浪打</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Verdana;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;'>胜似闲庭信步嘛</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">!~~~</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;'>不过</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Verdana;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;'>我尊重你的决定</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;'>再次多谢你</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Verdana;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">..</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;'>来这里</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:Verdana;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;'>已经成了我的一个习惯</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;line-height:15.75pt;
'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Verdana;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">=============</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;line-height:15.75pt;
'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:red;'>大盘已经说的够清楚的，中长线走势早说了，</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:red;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">1</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:red;'>日说了中短线，</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:Verdana;color:red;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">12</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:red;'>月要出现大幅震荡。这种大幅震荡正是短线的好机会。而大盘的旗帜也很明确，就是银行股、地产股为代表的成分股，只要他们不倒，牛市的第一轮就不会结束。所以没必要每天都说一次大盘，自己也要慢慢学会看。</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>回复：</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">------</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> [</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>匿名</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">] </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>小溪</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> 2006-12-08 12:32:05</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>缠</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">JJ</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>我的股票</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">600196</span><span style='font-size:
14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>没出现吻已经跌去一大截了等吻出来那不是都跌没了</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">55555555</span><span style='font-size:
14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>我咋办呢</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">?</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> ===========</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>你的理解错误</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>你好好品味这句话</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">: </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>首先必须明确的是，所有上涨、下跌、盘整都建立在一定的周期图表上，例如在日线上的盘整，在</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">30</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>分钟线上可能就是上涨或下跌，</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(2006-12-08 12:35:56)</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">------ </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">[</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>匿名</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">] </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>中间体</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> 2006-12-08 12:31:36</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>就是说形成趋势后再谈背驰</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">, </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>背驰的力度是根据面积判断</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">. </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>但是不是有可能出现背驰后还会有第二个背驰呢</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">??? </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>请缠姐回答</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> ============</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>上面说</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">600196</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>的那位</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>必须也要如此理解</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">:</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>形成趋势后再谈背驰</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>对于一段趋势来说背驰只会一次</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>里面还有一个微妙的东西</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>过两天说</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(2006-12-08 12:39:24)</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">------</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>任我行</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> 2006-12-08 12:37:19</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>楼主真是一大伟人。无私的把自己的技术向社会奉献了</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>我喜欢短线。楼主能不能多说点短线操作方法。还有要怎样才能知一个股票有没有主力。就好象这几天走强的</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">600050</span><span style='font-size:
14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>来事把要怎样发现他要拉升</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> ============</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>长线短线的技术基础是一样的</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>只是看的图表不同</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>最短线的就看</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">1</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>分钟图</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>一般看</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">5</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>分钟或</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">30</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>分钟图</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(2006-12-08 12:40:34)</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">------ </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">[</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>匿名</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">] </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>中间体</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">2006-12-08 12:40:02</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>一定是二个相邻的面积比较吗</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">???</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> ===========</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>是</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>要多看图</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>面积这东西</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>目测就可以知道</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>不用什么指标</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(2006-12-08 12:41:16)</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">------ </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> [</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>匿名</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">] </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>外科医生</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> 2006-12-08 12:38:27</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>如向北辰股份那种走势</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>如何判断其卖出信号</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>现在如何处理为最佳方案</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>首先强调</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>我并没有该股</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>只是以此举例而已</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">)?</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>谢谢</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">?</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>。。。。。。。。。。</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>昨天下午</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">2</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>点发生背迟，卖出信号</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> <img
src="015.files/image003.gif" alt="" width="1204" height="759" border="0" v:shapes="_x0000_i1026" /></span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">===========</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>对</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>该股</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">30</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>分钟图上的辈驰什么明显</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>对这种短线走势特别猛的</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>如果资金不太大的</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>不能看日线</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>那反应太慢</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>看</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">30</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>分钟线足以</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> <img
src="015.files/image005.gif" alt="" width="1237" height="761" border="0" v:shapes="_x0000_i1027" /></span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(2006-12-08 12:44:09)</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">------</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> [</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>匿名</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">] </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>半部论语治天下</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">2006-12-08 12:43:45</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>有个问题，均线交叉形成的面积是不规则的，如何计算？</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> =============</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>形成趋势的才算面积</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>否则不断缠绕的</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>是盘整</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>这必须搞清楚</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(2006-12-08 12:45:05)</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">------ </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">[</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>匿名</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">] nn2006-12-08 12:29:25</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>首先感谢楼主无私教诲</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>但理论性较强</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>年龄老了</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>还需要漫漫领会</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>有一点不明</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>比如向北辰股份那种走势</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>如何判断其卖出信号</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>现在如何处理为最佳方案</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>首先强调</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>我并没有该股</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>只是以此举例而已</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">)?</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>谢谢</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">?</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> ============= </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>这种短线太猛的</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>看</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">30</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>分钟图</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>卖点十分清楚</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>目前如果没走也不用怕</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>反抽会很猛烈的</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>就等着吧</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(2006-12-08 12:47:17)</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">------ </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>心禅</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">2006-12-08 12:47:20</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>禅主</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>，你好，我来了，稍晚点，卖点的疑惑：从个股看，第一卖点并未出现，可大盘的调整下跌必使其下跌，此种情况如何回避？是不考虑大盘的下跌继续持有吗？</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> ============ </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>这种情况根本不会出现</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>关键是图表选择的问题</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>像北辰实业这次</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>在日线上没有第一类卖点</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>在</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">30</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>分钟线上就十分明显</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>关键是你如何选择</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(2006-12-08 12:52:04)</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">------ </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>公告一条缠中说缠定理</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>任何的上涨转折都是由某级别的第一类卖点构成的</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">;</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>任何的下跌转折都是由某级别的第一类买点构成的</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">. </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> (</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>注：注意这里趋势的定义和</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">1</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>买的定义，和后期的不同）</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>注意版权</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">. </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(2006-12-08 12:56:14)</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">------</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> [</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>匿名</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">] </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>中间体</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">2006-12-08 12:56:34</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>缠姐没给出结论啊</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">, </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>面积比越大越好还是越小越好啊</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">, </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>应该是小吧</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">. </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">========== </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>上面写的很清楚</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>比前面的小就可以了</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>好好研究这句话</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>如何判断</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>背驰</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>？首先定义一个概念，称为缠中说禅趋势力度：前一</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>吻</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>的结束与后一</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>吻</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>开始由短线均线与长期均线相交所形成的面积。当缠中说禅趋势力度比上一次缠中说禅趋势力度要弱，形成</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>背驰</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>。</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(2006-12-08 12:58:41)</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">------</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>小明</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">2006-12-08 14:55:02</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">[</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>匿名</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">] </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>庸人</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">2006-12-08 14:32:52</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>世上本无事，庸人自扰之。一个小小的北辰实业，就能够让大盘尸横遍野。所有的繁荣只不过是虚幻，过眼烟云而已。</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> =======================</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>自称庸人的人水平的确不怎么样！缠</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">mm</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>曾经说过，不要跟着那些小资金后面玩，要多看看大资金在干什么。你看看几大龙头股哪个不是筑成了双重顶？</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>而北辰只是个导火索而已，</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">just</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>一个引线，懂吗？</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">============ </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>干什么都要有预见性</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>这调整</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,1</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>日已经提前提醒了</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>不相应操作是心态问题</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>被市场迷惑了</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>繁荣只不过是虚幻</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>不繁荣也只不过是虚幻</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>不明白这点</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>总是一边去想</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>是不可能成为好的操作者的</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></b></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>好的操作者就是以幻制幻</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>幻中取利</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">. </span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>大盘跌</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>意味着机会又来了，应该高兴才对</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>当然</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>满仓的就没办法了</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></b></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(2006-12-08 15:04:56)</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">------ </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">[</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>匿名</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">] </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>中间体</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">2006-12-08 12:40:02</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>一定是二个相邻的面积比较吗</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">??? </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">=========== </span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>是</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>要多看图</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>面积这东西</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>目测就可以知道</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>不用什么指标</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>中间有盘整区的话</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">, </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>是否可跳过盘整区与前面比较</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">???</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> ==============</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><b><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;'>盘整不是趋势</span></b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>当然不算</span></b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(2006-12-08 15:06:26)</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">------</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">[</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>匿名</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">] </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>袖手旁观</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">2006-12-10 12:25:57</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>哈哈，这个解读有意思。如果说上篇比较容易想到，也曾这么想过的话，这一篇实在是相当的有启发。</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US"> </span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:
宋体;color:#323E32;'>扯开一句，缠</span><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">mm</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;
color:#323E32;'>在《货币战争和人民币战略（上）》中</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">“</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>美国经济将在今后一两年的平台整理后进入真正的、更具杀伤力的下跌，而这下跌只是更大级别下跌的前奏。</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">”</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>是</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">3</span><span style='font-size:14.0pt;
font-family:宋体;color:#323E32;'>年前的话，现在是否有更新？当然长期战略观点是不需要频繁更新的。</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#323E32;
' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">=================</span></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>这个下跌早用资源类的上涨与货币的贬值化解了</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>关键的周期在</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">2019</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>年</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>这是最重要的</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>那更大级别下跌值的就是这个</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">. </span></b></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>但这种化解只会导致更大的问题</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>另外</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>这里说一句狠话</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">:</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>美国股市短期之所以能用这种化解的方式</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>中国的功劳大大的</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>本</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">ID</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>当时立论的前提就是人民币不能动</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>这是一个关键的前提</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,95</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>年</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">7</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>月这个前提已经没有了</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>因此而引发的资源类大涨的化解就在情理之中了</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></b></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>但</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;'
lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">2019</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>年的大周期是无可化解的</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">,</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:宋体;color:#339966;
'>关键的问题是中国不要上那贼船</span></b><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">.</span></b></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:simsun;color:#339966;' lang="EN-US" xml:lang="EN-US">(2006-12-10 12:31:51)</span></b></p>
<p align="left" style='text-align:left;
line-height:15.75pt;'><span