Capstone-Project

Diabetic Patients’ Re-admission Prediction

Problem Statement:

To identify the factors that lead to the high readmission rate of diabetic patients within 30 days post discharge and correspondingly to predict the high-risk diabetic-patients who are most likely to get readmitted within 30 days so that the quality of care can be improved along with improved patient’s experience, health of the population and reduce costs by lowering readmission rates. Also, to identify the medicines that are the most effective in treating diabetes.

Data Source:

UCI Dataset Link

Dataset name:

Diabetes 130-US hospitals for years 1999-2008 Data Set

Variable identification:

1. Independent variables (49): encounter_id, patient_nbr, race, gender, age, weight, admission_type_id, discharge_disposition_id, admission_source_id, time_in_hospital, payer_code, medical_specialty, num_lab_procedures, num_procedures, num_medications, number_outpatient, number_emergency, number_inpatient, diag_1, diag_2, diag_3, number_diagnoses, max_glu_serum, A1Cresult, metformin, repaglinide, nateglinide, chlorpropamide, glimepiride, acetohexamide, glipizide, glyburide, tolbutamide, pioglitazone, rosiglitazone, acarbose, miglitol, troglitazone, tolazamide, examide, citoglipton, insulin, glyburide-metformin, glipizide-metformin, glimepiride-pioglitazone, metformin-rosiglitazone, metformin-pioglitazone, change, diabetesMed.

2. Dependent variable (1): readmitted (Categorical)

Background:

Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is a chronic disease where the blood has high sugar level. It can occur when the pancreas does not produce enough insulin, or when the body cannot effectively use the insulin it produces (WHO). Diabetes is a progressive disease that can lead to a significant number of health complications and profoundly reduce the quality of life. While many diabetic patients manage the health complication with diet and exercise, some require medications to control blood glucose level. As published by a research article named “The relationship between diabetes mellitus and 30-day readmission rates”, it is estimated that 9.3% of the population in the United States have diabetes mellitus (DM), 28% of which are undiagnosed. In recent years, government agencies and healthcare systems have increasingly focused on 30-day readmission rates to determine the complexity of their patient populations and to improve quality. Thirty-day readmission rates for hospitalized patients with DM are reported to be between 14.4 and 22.7%, much higher than the rate for all hospitalized patients (8.5–13.5%).

Impact on business:

Hospital readmission is an important contributor to total medical expenditures and is an emerging indicator of quality of care. Diabetes, similar to other chronic medical conditions, is associated with increased risk of hospital readmission. As mentioned in the article “Correction to: Hospital Readmission of Patients with Diabetes”, hospital readmission is a high-priority health care quality measure and target for cost reduction, particularly within 30 days of discharge. The burden of diabetes among hospitalized patients is substantial, growing, and costly, and readmissions contribute a significant portion of this burden. Reducing readmission rates among patients with diabetes has the potential to greatly reduce health care costs while simultaneously improving care. Our aim is to provide some insights into the risk factors for readmission and also to identify the medicines that are the most effective in treating diabetes.