analysis-of-ASX200-index-changes

This repo contains SQL and VBA code used to produce visualizations for the investigation of (potential) trading strategies to make money off changes in the constituents of ASX200 index.

Three types of visualization are produced. The first is an event-study time series plot of cumulative abnormal returns, assuming perfect foresight of the changes:

The calculations to produce this chart are in event_study.sql.

The next type of visualization is a series of scatterplots with categories. One such scatterplot is:

The X and Y variables are calculated before each announcement of a change in index membership. The series of scatterplots is used to determine whether patterns of these variables is useful in predicting the announced changes¹. These calculations are in create_index_change_factors.sql.

The stored procedure index_change_analysis returns a set of records corresponding to a given announcement date (of which there are four every year) and a given number of trading days prior to the announcement. Each record has fields necessary to produce the scatterplot in Excel.

The stored procedure is called from within VBA in Excel. The relevant code is in index_changes.bas, which imports the result into an ADODB recordset, copies the data into Excel, and produces the scatterplot.

Finally, the following graphic was produced of the cumulative returns of a short-selling trading strategy based on selling the bottom ten stocks in the ASX200 index²:

The computations to produce this chart are in trading_strategy.sql.

List of tables and columns referenced

ASX200_constituents_pre_change

Column_name	Type	Nullable
StockID	int	no
IndexDate	datetime2	no

Daily_prices

Column_name	Type	Nullable
StockID	int	no
PriceDate	datetime2	no
Open	float	yes
High	float	yes
Low	float	yes
Close	float	yes
AdjOpen	float	yes
AdjHigh	float	yes
AdjLow	float	yes
AdjClose	float	yes
Volume	int	yes
MarketCap	float	yes
Shares	float	yes

indexChangeData

Column_name	Type	Nullable
Change nvarchar yes
StockID	int	no
EffDate	datetime2	yes
AnnDate	datetime2	yes

SP200Data

Column_name	Type	Nullable
PriceDate	datetime2	no
AccumIndex	float	yes
DailyRet	float	yes

stockaccumindex

Column_name	Type	Nullable
StockID	int	no
PriceDate	datetime2	no
AccumIndex decimal yes

tradingdays

Column_name	Type	Nullable
PriceDate	datetime2	no
EOM	smallint	yes
DateOffset	int	yes

Footnotes

1. The X and Y variables are rankings based on the variables liquidity and average market capitalisation. Liquidity and average market capitalisation are calculated in accordance with Standard and Poors’ index methodology for every ASX stock 10, 20 and 30 trading days before each announcement. ↩

2. It was determined that prediction of index removals, but not index additions, could feasibly be attempted. ↩