Climate change threatens coffee production and the livelihoods of thousands of families in Mesoamerica that depend on it. Replacing coffee with cocoa and integrating trees in combined agroforestry systems to ameliorate abiotic stress are among the proposed alternatives to overcome this challenge. These two alternatives do not consider the vulnerability of cocoa and tree species commonly used in agroforestry plantations to future climate conditions. We assessed the suitability of these alternatives by identifying the potential changes in the distribution of coffee, cocoa and the 100 most common agroforestry trees found in Mesoamerica. Here we show that cocoa could potentially become an alternative in most of coffee vulnerable areas. Agroforestry with currently preferred tree species is highly vulnerable to future climate change. Transforming agroforestry systems by changing tree species composition may be the best approach to adapt most of the coffee and cocoa production areas. Our results stress the urgency for land use planning considering climate change effects and to assess new combinations of agroforestry species in coffee and cocoa plantations in Mesoamerica.
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This analysis uses bioclimatic variables from WorldClim as input data. These files are too large to upload to GitHub. To replicate this analysis you must download the files via WorldClim and add it into the directory data/worldclim.
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Part of this research was supported by cooperative agreement HI-A70D41/A1092 that was made possible by the support of HIVOS International. This work was implemented as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry - FTA and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security - CCAFS, which are carried out with support from the CGIAR Trust Fund and through bilateral funding agreements.