In this project I conduct an analysis for the divorce dataset from Kaggle, you can find the dataset in the following link: https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/andrewmvd/divorce-prediction
This dataset contains data about 150 couples with their corresponding Divorce Predictors Scale variables (DPS) on the basis of Gottman couples therapy.
The couples are from various regions of Turkey wherein the records were acquired from face-to-face interviews with couples who were already divorced or happily married.
All responses were collected on a 5 point scale (0=Never, 1=Seldom, 2=Averagely, 3=Frequently, 4=Always).
The questions from the dataset:
1 - If one of us apologizes when our discussion deteriorates, the discussion ends.
2 - I know we can ignore our differences, even if things get hard sometimes.
3 - When we need it, we can take our discussions with my spouse from the beginning and correct it.
4 - When I discuss with my spouse, to contact him will eventually work.
5 - The time I spent with my wife is special for us.
6 - We don't have time at home as partners.
7 - We are like two strangers who share the same environment at home rather than family.
8 - I enjoy our holidays with my wife.
9 - I enjoy traveling with my wife.
10 - Most of our goals are common to my spouse.
11 - I think that one day in the future, when I look back, I see that my spouse and I have been in harmony with each other.
12 - My spouse and I have similar values in terms of personal freedom.
13 - My spouse and I have similar sense of entertainment.
14 - Most of our goals for people (children, friends, etc.) are the same.
15 - Our dreams with my spouse are similar and harmonious.
16 - We're compatible with my spouse about what love should be.
17 - We share the same views about being happy in our life with my spouse.
18 - My spouse and I have similar ideas about how marriage should be.
19 - My spouse and I have similar ideas about how roles should be in marriage.
20 - My spouse and I have similar values in trust.
21 - I know exactly what my wife likes.
22 - I know how my spouse wants to be taken care of when she/he sick.
23 - I know my spouse's favorite food.
24 - I can tell you what kind of stress my spouse is facing in her/his life.
25 - I have knowledge of my spouse's inner world.
26 - I know my spouse's basic anxieties.
27 - I know what my spouse's current sources of stress are.
28 - I know my spouse's hopes and wishes.
29 - I know my spouse very well.
30 - I know my spouse's friends and their social relationships.
31 - I feel aggressive when I argue with my spouse.
32 - When discussing with my spouse, I usually use expressions such as ‘you always’ or ‘you never’ .
33 - I can use negative statements about my spouse's personality during our discussions.
34 - I can use offensive expressions during our discussions.
35 - I can insult my spouse during our discussions.
36 - I can be humiliating when we discussions.
37 - My discussion with my spouse is not calm.
38 - I hate my spouse's way of open a subject.
39 - Our discussions often occur suddenly.
40 - We're just starting a discussion before I know what's going on.
41 - When I talk to my spouse about something, my calm suddenly breaks.
42 - When I argue with my spouse, ı only go out and I don't say a word.
43 - I mostly stay silent to calm the environment a little bit.
44 - Sometimes I think it's good for me to leave home for a while.
45 - I'd rather stay silent than discuss with my spouse.
46 - Even if I'm right in the discussion, I stay silent to hurt my spouse.
47 - When I discuss with my spouse, I stay silent because I am afraid of not being able to control my anger.
48 - I feel right in our discussions.
49 - I have nothing to do with what I've been accused of.
50 - I'm not actually the one who's guilty about what I'm accused of.
51 - I'm not the one who's wrong about problems at home.
52 - I wouldn't hesitate to tell my spouse about her/his inadequacy.
53 - When I discuss, I remind my spouse of her/his inadequacy.
54 - I'm not afraid to tell my spouse about her/his incompetence.
- Cheaking and cleaning the data.
- Conducting Exploratory Data Analysis.
- Modeling.
This dataset has 54 features and one target which is labelled as "divorce" which has a value of zero for not-divorced and one for divorced.
The original dataset has 170 rows, but there were duplicates in the dataset so after removing those duplicated rows, I was left with 150 rows.
The dataset got no missing values.
The EDA results of that dataset were really surprising to me, I'm not a relationship expert myself but I had assumptions regarding what a marriage that would last would look like. I'll share some of the insights that I got on the relationships of that dataset from that EDA.
- Q8 is supposed to have a very positive meaning so I assumed that the couples that stayed with each other will answer it with 3 or 4, has really surprising results as you can from the report that from 84 couples who stayed together 76 persons answered that question with 0!
- Q9 is same as Q9 and only 80 persons of the 84 couples who stayed togrther enjoy traveling with their wives!
- Q10 which indicates whether the couples have the same goals or not has surprising results: almost 50% of the people who got divorced answered this question with 3, and more than 64% of the couples who stayed together answered it with 0!
- Q11 which is really optimistic question got only 0 and 1 from the couples who stayed together while more than 69% of the divorced couples answered it with 3 and 4!
- Q12 also got mostly 0 and 1 from the not-divorced couples and 2, 3 and 4 from divorced couples.
- Q14 which indicates the unity of the goals of the couples which I assumed will get 3 and 4 from non-divorced, got mostly 0 and 1 from them!
- Q15 which also indicates the unity of the dreams of the couples which I also assumed will get 3 and 4 from non-divorced, got mostly 0 and 1 from them!
- Q16 is about the love concept for the cvouples and most of the non-divorced in this dataset seems to rarely agree on those concepts as they mostly answered that question with 0 and 1.
- Q17 answers seems to reveal that non-divorced couples rarley share the same views about being happy while divorced does!
- Q18, Q19 and Q20 answers shows that the couples who stayed together almost never share similar ideas about how marriage should be, how roles should be in marriage or the values in trust, while a lot of divorced does!
- I also assumed that couples that stayed together know a lot about each other so I expected the answer for the questions from 21 to 30 to have a 3 or 4 answer from the couples who stayed together but in this dataset, those questions were mostly answered by 0 or 1!
On the other hand, there were some results that made sense - at least for me -
- The fact that the couples who stayed together never answered Q7 with anything but 0 or 1, So answering that question with anything higher than 1 is a real red flag in the relationship.
- Couples who stayed together answered the questions from 33 to 36 which indicates how disrespectful the couples are to each other, and the couples who stayed together mostly answered with 0 or 1 while more than 90% of the divorced couples answered those questions with 3 or 4.
- Q37, Q41 and Q47 which show how much anger is contained in that relationship, got mostly 0 and 1 from couples who stayed together while got mostly 3 or 4 from the divorced ones.
- Q38, Q39, Q40, Q42 and Q45 which show how bad the discussions and arguments and basically the communication skills between the couples can be, got mostly 0 and 1 from couples who stayed together while got mostly 3 or 4 from the divorced ones.
- Q52, Q53 and Q54 which show the readiness of the partners to tell their spouses their inadequacies got answered mostly with 0 and 1 from non-divorced couples and 3 and 4 from divorced ones.
- Q52, Q53 and Q54 which show the readiness of the partners to tell their spouses their inadequacies got answered mostly with 0 and 1 from non-divorced couples and 3 and 4 from divorced ones.
I used Pandas Profiling to conduct this EDA and it was a really great tool that produces really usefull reports. you can run the code in the notebook to see those reports
If you didn't use it before, I highly recommend that you take a look at that article: https://towardsdatascience.com/pandas-profiling-easy-exploratory-data-analysis-in-python-65d6d0e23650 or to look it up online.
I used cross_val_score which applyes the K-FOLD Cross Validation to get the accuracy score of each model and then chose the best one.
I experimented with 4 different models:
- Decision Tree
- SVM
- Random Forest
- Logistic Regression
And Logistic Regression won the battle with 98% +/- .12 accuracy.
The reason why I chose to use those simple models is because the dataset is quite small and simple so I didn't think it will need a very complicated model.
Also, the dataset is quite balanced with a 1:1.3 ratio between divorce and non-divorce, and that's why accuracy is a good metric for such a task.