Pandemic Modeling
Goal
Accurately forecast COVID-19 cases, admissions, and deaths at the federal, state, and local levels as well as identify and project the impact of social distancing policies, weather, and other factors on the disease’s ability to spread using state of the art machine learning techniques in conjunction with specially curated data from our partner team task geography.
Our Difference
There are a lot of different groups attempting to forecast COVID-19 and its spread. Our approach, however, is fundamentally different in that rather than employ simple mathematical models we seek to utilize some of the most big and complex neural network architectures. While this approach might seem unintuitive, these large neural network for time series forecasting architectures enable the model to learn on many different covariates and predict several outputs (admissions, deaths, new cases) at once rather than requiring separate models. Of course, this means that we also require a LOT of data. However, thanks to our partnership with task-geo, we have high-quality temporal data on COVID-19. Additionally, we plan on extensively leveraging transfer learning and other time series data augmentation methods. Altogether we aim to construct an effective template for using deep learning to forecast COVID-19 that can also be applied to future epidemics with limited data (or any other data constrained forecasting scenario).
Team
Isaac McKillen-Godfried - Team Leader Email
Aradhana Chaturvedi - Data Scientist
Mike Honey - Data Visualization Specialist
Iason Konstantinidis - Software Dev/PM
Kevin Li - Data Visualization
Maggie Wang - Data Scientist Email
- Experience with data wrangling, processing, modeling (time-series forecasting, supervised, unsupervised learning).
- Proficient in Python, Pandas, Scikit-learn, Numpy, Matplotlib, SHAP.
- Project experience with Keras, Pytorch.
Serge Myroshnychenko - Epidemiologist
Malavika Suresh - Data Scientist
Pranjalya Tiwari - Data Scientist
Wendy Mak - Data Scientist
Michael Wang - Data Scientist Email
Recruiting
We are actively looking for skilled epidemiologists, virologists, as well as additional data scientists willing to donate their time for this important endeavor. Please do not hesitate reach out to the team lead if at all interested.
Current Tasks
You can view our Task-TS GitHub Board for more information on tasks related to COVID-19.