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figure out uncertainty estimates for aggregate composite method predictions #204

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aappling-usgs opened this issue Jun 16, 2017 · 1 comment
Open

figure out uncertainty estimates for aggregate composite method predictions #204

aappling-usgs opened this issue Jun 16, 2017 · 1 comment
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@aappling-usgs
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see also #199
@aappling-usgs aappling-usgs created this issue from a note in maintenance (Do) Jun 16, 2017
@aappling-usgs aappling-usgs moved this from Do to Should Do in maintenance Jul 25, 2017
@aappling-usgs aappling-usgs moved this from Should Do to Could Do in maintenance Jul 25, 2017
@aappling-usgs
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Thoughts from a few years ago:

We may find that a faster way to estimate the uncertainty in this sum is by Monte Carlo simulation, using the means and variances (or se.preds) of instantaneous fluxes to parametrically resample from those distributions, find the sum, and repeat until we have a population of sums from which we can estimate a distribution. See, for example, http://eprints.sics.se/2253/1/SICS-T--2002-01--SE.pdf ("Evaluating the CDF for m weighted sums of n correlated lognormal random variables", Lars Rasmusson, 2002, Swedish Institute of Compute Science, Report T2002:01, ISRN: SICS-T-2002/01-SE, ISSN:110-3154)

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