TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION EXTREMES

Figure number: CCB3.2 Figure 1 From the IPCC Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report: Chapter 3

Description:

The figure has four panels (2x2). Left column shows anomalies of annual maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx), the right one shows annual maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1day). The upper row shows natural and human forcing simulations, while the lower row shows only natural forcing simulations.

Comparison of observed and simulated changes in global mean temperature and precipitation extremes. Time series of globally averaged 5-year mean anomalies of the annual maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx in °C) and annual maximum 1-day precipitation (Rx1day as standardized probability index in %) during 1953-2017 from the HadEX3 observations and the CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles with natural and human forcing (upper) and natural forcing only (lower). For CMIP5, historical simulations for 1953-2005 are combined with corresponding RCP4.5 scenario runs for 2006-2017. For CMIP6, historical simulations for 1953-2014 are combined with SSP2-4.5 scenario simulations for 2015-2017. Numbers in brackets represents the number of models used. The time-fixed observational mask has been applied to model data throughout the whole period. Grid cells with more than 70% data availability during 1953-2017 plus data for at least 3 years during 2013-2017 are used. Coloured lines indicate multi-model means, while shading represents 5th-95th percentile ranges, based on all available ensemble members with equal weight given to each model (Section 3.2). Anomalies are relative to 1961-1990 means. Figure is updated from Seong et al. (2021), their Figure 3 and Paik et al. (2020), their Figure 3.

Author list:

• Elizaveta Malinina: ECCC, Canada, elizaveta.malinina-rieger@canada.ca, githubid: malininae
• Seung-Ki Min: Pohan University of Science and Technology, Korea
• Ying Sun: China Meteorological Administration, China
• Nathan Gillett: ECCC, Canada
• Krishnan Raghavan: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India
• Xuebing Zhang, ECCC, Canada

Publication sources:

• Determining the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to the Observed Intensification of Extreme Precipitation, S. Paik et al, Geophysical Research Letters 47.12, e2019GL086875, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086875, 2020.
• Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Contributions to Extreme Temperature Changes during 1951–2015, Seong M.-G. et al, Journal of Climate, 34(3), 857-870, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1023.1, 2021.

ESMValTool Branch:

• ESMValTool-AR6-OriginalCode-FinalFigures: ar6_chapter3_cryo_xcb32

ESMValCore Branch:

NB!: Technically a new repository for ESMValCore wasn't created, just the custom variables were added into the esmvalcore distributed with conda.

These tables were added to anaconda3/envs/esmvaltool/lib/python3.8/site-packages/esmvalcore/cmor/tables/custom/

The txx and rx1day tables are in this repository.

Recipe & diagnostics:

Recipe used: recipes/recipe_ipcc_ar6_wg1_fgd_xcb_3_2.yml

Diagnostic used: diag_scripts/extreme_events/extremes_ipcc_ar6_wg1_fgd_xcb_32.py

Expected image path:

This is the path of the image relative to the automatically generated ESMValTool output location:

• recipe_ipcc_ar6_wg1_fgd_xcb_3_2_YYYYMMDD_HHMMSS/plots/xcbox32/xcbox32/figure_xcb32.png

Recipe generations tools:

N/A

Ancillary figures and datasets:

The diagnostic runs very-very long (10-ish), the reason for this is calculation of probability distribution function for precipitaton extreme probability for each grid cell. For this reason, the calculated cdfs are saved into ntcdf files for each model into the intrenal esmvaltool run directory into rx1day_cdfs/cdf_$project$$experiment$$model$.nc

Additional datasets:

The HadEX3 data for TXx and Rx1day were downloaded from https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadex3/download.html and cmorized with cmorizers/obs/cmorize_obs_hadex3.py in the above mentioned repository. The data is provided under Open Goevrnment Licence http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/

Software description:

The software from Mistral:

• ESMValTool environment file: IPCC_environments/mistral_cryo_and_xcb32_conda_environment.yml
• pip file: IPCC_environments/mistral_cryo_and_xcb32_pip_environment.txt

The software from Liza's computer:

• ESMValTool environment file: IPCC_environments/liza_dell_computer_conda_environment.yml
• pip file: IPCC_environments/liza_dell_computer_pip_environment.txt

Hardware description:

The data was processed on Mistral, the final version was pre-processed on the 5th of March 2021 at 00:21:33 UTC. Then the cdfs were calculated the following days. Some minor "cosmetic" edits were done on Liza's dell laptop on the 10th of March 2021.