fix #52531, fix the effects modeling of QuoteNode (#52548)

What observed in #52531 is that `QuoteNode` can embed global variables
that users can modify. Therefore, when dealing with `QuoteNode`, it's
necessary to taint its `:inaccessiblememonly` just like we do for
`GlobalRef`.

- fixes #52531
- replaces #52536

base/compiler/abstractinterpretation.jl

@@ -2268,6 +2268,8 @@ end
 
 function abstract_eval_special_value(interp::AbstractInterpreter, @nospecialize(e), vtypes::Union{VarTable,Nothing}, sv::AbsIntState)
     if isa(e, QuoteNode)
+        merge_effects!(interp, sv, Effects(EFFECTS_TOTAL;
+            inaccessiblememonly = is_mutation_free_argtype(typeof(e.value)) ? ALWAYS_TRUE : ALWAYS_FALSE))
         return Const(e.value)
     elseif isa(e, SSAValue)
         return abstract_eval_ssavalue(e, sv)

test/compiler/effects.jl

@@ -1023,3 +1023,19 @@ end
     isinf(y) && return zero(y)
     irinterp_nothrow_override(true, y)
 end |> Core.Compiler.is_nothrow
+
+# https://github.com/JuliaLang/julia/issues/52531
+const a52531 = Core.Ref(1)
+@eval getref52531() = $(QuoteNode(a52531)).x
+@test !Core.Compiler.is_consistent(Base.infer_effects(getref52531))
+let
+    global set_a52531!, get_a52531
+    _a::Int       = -1
+    set_a52531!(a::Int) = (_a = a; return get_a52531())
+    get_a52531()       = _a
+end
+@test !Core.Compiler.is_consistent(Base.infer_effects(set_a52531!, (Int,)))
+@test !Core.Compiler.is_consistent(Base.infer_effects(get_a52531, ()))
+@test get_a52531() == -1
+@test set_a52531!(1) == 1
+@test get_a52531() == 1