State-Space Measurement of Australian GDP Growth: Estimated using Rstan
RBA RDP: http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2014/pdf/rdp2014-12.pdf We use state-space methods to construct new estimates of Australian gross domestic product (GDP) growth from the published national accounts estimates of expenditure, income and production. Across a range of specifications, our measures are substantially less volatile than headline GDP growth. We conclude that much of the quarter-to-quarter volatility in Australian GDP growth reflects measurement error rather than true shifts in the level of economic activity