Time Series Forecasting of Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Electricity Generation in USA.
• Predicted Co2 Emissions in USA for next 6 months using time series techniques . • Performed Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) to identify Seasonality, Trend and Stationarity in data.
• Statistically tested for stationarity, trend and seasonality using ADF-test, KPSS-test & Decompose Plot.
• Transformed dataset using box-cox transformation and decomposed the time series using STL and SEATS.
• Applied Holt Winter’s Additive Model and SARIMA model for forecasting the emission, with p,d,q values being inferred using PACF and ACF test and plots.
• Fine-tuned the parameters using Grid Search and evaluated performance using RMSE, MAPE and Residual analysis.
• Among all the models applied the Holt’s Winter Model gave best predictions with RMSE value of 6.0242.