A fully probabilistic forecasting model for French Presidential Elections

This repo contains code for a forecasting model for French Presidential elections. The individual models are found in the folder Observed and the combined model in the folders Current Election and Backtesting. The repo also contains a model for French primaries to combine polling data across survey questions even if they don't cover the same sets of candidates. Organizing code for incumbency, economic growth, polls and so forth is found in the folder Organizing. Supporting functions (mostly plotting functions) are in the folder Functions.