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We simulate 50000 draws from a Dirichlet distribution for each poll.
The probability distribution function of a Dirichlet distribution is:
${x_1, \dots, x_K} \sim\frac{1}{B(\boldsymbol{\alpha})}\prod_{i=1}^Kx_i^{\alpha_i - 1}$ with$K\le 2$ ,$x_i \in (0,1)$ , and$\sum_{i=1}^Kx_i = 1$ .Our
$x_i$ are the poll percentages for each party$i$ .The probability of victory for each party is the number of draws out of the total in which the simulated election is won by the respective party.
Sources: https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ülke_çapında_2023_Türkiye_genel_seçimleri_için_yapılan_anketler https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Türkiye_genel_seçimleri_için_yapılan_anketler