covid19-modelling

A Outline of Project for MATH371 Wi2020}

by Natasha Ting

BA Hons Economics
University of Alberta 2020

Objective

Develope method of estimation of parameters of the SIRD Epidemiology model without assumption of population.

Methods

See https://github.com/NatashaTing/covid19-modelling/blob/master/write/Slides.pdf

Result

Method estimates parameters by fitting the SIRD and SIRDQ model on data. However, it is not robust to the changes in initial guess in N (population) fed to the optimizer.

Usage

1. use system_estimation.py to estimate parameters.
2. getfiles.py gets the data in format needed for estimation
3. dataset.py updates daily data from https://github.com/canghailan/Wuhan-2019-nCoV

Development

This repository is under development to optimize speed and to increase robustness with regards to parameter N, and to try to estimate without certain shapes of the data.

Issues

Results are off when used with matplotplib 3.2.1 version on Python3. Downgrade to 3.1.3 for the results I obtained.