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Generated LMEASDRs Documentation
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RezaDastranj committed Jan 13, 2024
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24 changes: 24 additions & 0 deletions .github/workflows/Documenter.yml
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name: Documentation

on:
push:
branches:
- main
tags: '*'
pull_request:

jobs:
build:
runs-on: ubuntu-latest
steps:
- uses: actions/checkout@v2
- uses: julia-actions/setup-julia@latest
with:
version: '1.6'
- name: Install dependencies
run: julia --project=docs/ -e 'using Pkg; Pkg.develop(PackageSpec(path=pwd())); Pkg.instantiate()'
- name: Build and deploy
env:
GITHUB_TOKEN: ${{ secrets.GITHUB_TOKEN }} # If authenticating with GitHub Actions token
DOCUMENTER_KEY: ${{ secrets.DOCUMENTER_KEY }} # If authenticating with SSH deploy key
run: julia --project=docs/ docs/make.jl
10 changes: 10 additions & 0 deletions README.md
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# Analysing Age-Specific Death Rates with MixedModels.jl

A linear mixed-effects ([LME](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed_model#Qualitative_Description:~:text=traits.%20%5B16%5D-,Definition,-%5Bedit%5D)) model is proposed for modelling and forecasting single and multi-population age-specific death rates (`ASDRs`). The innovative approach that we take in this study treats age, the interaction between gender and age, their interactions with predictors, and cohort as [fixed effects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed_model#/media/File:Mixedandfixedeffects.jpg). Furthermore, we incorporate additional random effects to account for variations in the intercept, predictor coefficients, and cohort effects among different age groups of females and males across various countries. In the single-population case, we will see how the random effects of intercept and slope change over different age groups. We will show that the `LME` model is identifiable. We perform a [bootstrap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootstrapping_(statistics)) resampling of the parameters of the LME model to compute $95\%$ uncertainty intervals for death rate forecasts. We will use data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) to illustrate the procedure. We assess the predictive performance of the `LME` model in comparison to the Lee-Carter (LC) models fitted to individual populations. Additionally, we evaluate the predictive accuracy of the `LME` model relative to the Li-Lee (LL) model. Our results indicate that the `LME` model provides a more precise representation of observed mortality rates within the HMD, demonstrates robustness in calibration rate selection, and exhibits superior performance when contrasted with the LC and LL models.

## Keywords

Life insurance, Mortality forecasting, Restricted maximum likelihood, Model selection, Random walks with drift, [MixedModels.jl](https://github.com/JuliaStats/MixedModels.jl).


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