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Final Programme: We will update this document from time to time during the workshop to link to lecture/practical materials.
- [20 Jul, Sat] We have updated the instructions to install the VM, together with the actual version of the VM (2.3 GB) to be used during this workshop.
- [10 Jul, Thu] For full workshop participants (day 1-5), you will be required to access data from the IRI Data Library. To do this, you will need an access key from IRI. Please follow these instructions.
The Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project was jointly set up by the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) WWRP /THORPEX -WCRP in 2013 to promote research in the subseasonal to seasonal timescale focusing on high impact weather events. The Project’s objectives are to improve forecast skill and understanding on the timescale that falls between the 2-week (medium-range) and 3-month (seasonal) periods. Another objective is to promote uptake of the initiative by operational centres and the applications community. These are achieved by tapping on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues raised by the Global Framework of Climate Services (GFCS) relevant to this timescale (Vitart, et al., 2012).
Seamless weather-to-climate forecasts can significantly benefit society. As part of the Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF) process for the ASEAN region, ASEANCOF, a survey outcome of all National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in the ASEAN region prioritised regional capability development in the use of sub-seasonal forecasts. Weeks’ ahead is an important timescale for planning; if some indication of the likelihood of extreme weather conditions can be provided at that lead-time, it will be useful for contingency planning. Given the relatively good skill of temperature and rainfall subseasonal forecasts for the Southeast Asia region (Li & Robertson, 2015; preliminary results from first and second workshop, S2S-SEA I & II in 2017 and 2018 respectively), influenced by Madden-Julian Oscillation phenomenon, there is potential for benefits of forecast on this timescale to be maximised through applications in different user-sectors.
Planning and management activities in the agricultural and food, disaster-risk reduction, health, and water resources require lead-time that fall into subseasonal and seasonal time scales. These include anticipating hazards arising from early or late onsets, and variations in duration and breaks of monsoon seasons. Variations in seasonal rainfall and temperature can lead to major droughts and floods, or hazards from extreme hot and cold conditions impacting the local population. Being ready for such contingencies, through judicious use of the forecasts by operational centres and especially if forecasts have been co-developed with end-users, can minimise the losses from weather and climate-related disasters.