The Effectiveness of Various Precautions for Pandemics

Demonstration

Pandemic Simulation Model

Pandemic Case Track

Motivation

Test the effectiveness of various precautions for pandemics such as wearing masks, social distancing, quarantine, and so on. See how effective these preventive measures is and find a best way to control the pandemic.

Model

SIR Model

There are three kinds of people in model.

• Susceptible (S): blue color
• Infectious (I): red color
• Recovered or Removed (died) (R): gray color

Initialized parameters:

• infection_radius = 0.5
• probability_of_infection = 0.5

Mechanism

• Each individual walks in random.
• Individuals can move between different communities.
  It has 6 communities in the model.
  Initialized parameters:
  • travel_rate = 0.3 (between communities)
  • trigger_case_rate = 0.05
    Start decreasing the travel rate after the trigger_case_rate.
• Infection Identification:
  We set 0.2 units of time in the program is one day in real world.
  Initialized parameters:
  • percentage_of_no_symptom = 0.3
  • infectious_period = 4.2 (21 days)
• Quarantine
  Initialized parameters:
  • quarantine_mode = false
  • percentage_of_quarantine = 0.7
• Social distancing
  Initialized parameters:
  • social_distanc_factor = sqrt(0.5)
    The value in the square root means the distance between people in real world.
    When this factor is larger, the social distance will be closer.
  • percentage_of_social_distancing = 0.7

Transmission Level Evaluation

• Rate of spread:
  R = (number of infectious people in current moment) / (number of infected people in current moment)
  • R > 1: Infected people are exponentially increasing.
  • R = 1: The pandemic is under control.
  • R < 1: The pandemic is slowing down.

Conclusion

The precedence of these precautions from highest to lowest:

1. Wearing masks and quaratine
2. Larger social distance and percentage of people following social distancing
3. Reducing travel rate