Data and Code for 'Probability of committed warming exceeding 1.5C and 2.0C Paris targets' Steven Sherwood, Alex Sen Gupta and Stephen Swartz

This folder contains: JD_projections_pdf*.mat: Each of these files contain 500 model simulations from 1850 to 2100. Simulations span the a priori equilibrium climate sensitivity/ aerosolradiative forcing parameters and cover the four different carbon parameter sets described in the paper. Simulations meet the observed temperature trend constraint.

ECS_RF_joint_distribution.txt contains a table of binned equilibrium climate sensitivity vs Aerosol radiative forcing joint probability distribution from Sherwood, S. C., Webb, M. J., Annan, J. D., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M., Hargreaves, J. C., Hegerl,G., Klein, S. A., Marvel, K. D., Rohling, E. J., Watanabe, M., Andrews, T., Braconnot, P.,Bretherton, C. S., Foster, G. L., Hausfather, Z., Heydt, A. S., Knutti, R., Mauritsen, T., Norris,J. R., Proistosescu, C., Rugenstein, M., Schmidt, G. A., Tokarska, K. B. & Zelinka, M. D.(2020). An Assessment of Earth’s Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence, Rev.Geophys. 58(4).

The /code folder contains matlab scripts to reproduce these simulations (see /code/readme.rtf for more detail) The /external_data folder conatins forcing data used by the matlab scripts