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[timeseries] Update the RecursiveTabular model #3184

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merged 15 commits into from
May 16, 2023

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@shchur shchur commented Apr 30, 2023

Description of changes:
This PR contains various enhancements and bugfixes for the RecursiveTabular model.

Enhancements:

  • Apply standardization to each time series (after differencing) using the standardize argument.
  • Limit the # of rows in the tabular dataset for faster training using the max_num_samples argument.
  • Obtain quantiles for the probabilistic forecast assuming zero-mean Gaussian distribution of residuals (multiplied by the scale of the respective time series). This ensures that the mean/0.5 quantile forecasts exactly correspond to the point forecast by the TabularPredictor.
  • Allow passing hyperparameters and fit_kwargs to the TabularPredictor.
  • Replace AutoGluonTabular with RecursiveTabular in the presets. The updated version achieves 76% win rate against the previous one in terms of MASE.
  • (unrelated to the model) Speed up the implementation of get_forecast_horizon_index_ts_dataframe using vectorization.

Bugfixes:

  • Make sure that the time series are long enough for the chosen differencing. Before, if some time series were too short, numba would crash the entire Python process.
  • Fix a bug where MLForecast would return incorrect predictions if the item_ids were not sorted alphabetically.

By submitting this pull request, I confirm that you can use, modify, copy, and redistribute this contribution, under the terms of your choice.

@shchur shchur force-pushed the ts-transforms branch 2 times, most recently from d59d5ae to 6a30712 Compare May 5, 2023 14:03
@shchur shchur changed the title [WIP] [timeseries] Add time series transformations [timeseries] Update the RecursiveTabular model May 5, 2023
@shchur shchur requested a review from tonyhoo May 5, 2023 15:45
@shchur shchur added the module: timeseries related to the timeseries module label May 5, 2023
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github-actions bot commented May 5, 2023

Job PR-3184-9a0caaf is done.
Docs are uploaded to http://autogluon-staging.s3-website-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/PR-3184/9a0caaf/index.html

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Job PR-3184-9ab0868 is done.
Docs are uploaded to http://autogluon-staging.s3-website-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/PR-3184/9ab0868/index.html

@shchur shchur merged commit 17e254a into autogluon:master May 16, 2023
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@shchur shchur deleted the ts-transforms branch May 16, 2023 11:19
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