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Use user's own p_delay distribution in "rtlive.stan" #3

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andrybicio opened this issue May 14, 2021 · 1 comment
Open

Use user's own p_delay distribution in "rtlive.stan" #3

andrybicio opened this issue May 14, 2021 · 1 comment

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@andrybicio
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I'm wondering how to eventually add any user's own p_delay_distribution in the stan model.

Because I see from here, line 280
cumulative_p_delay <- rep(1, length(onset_frac))
that the cumulative is set to 1, no matter one. This has the result, as pointed out, that once a person shows symptoms it suddenly is tested and found positive. But in reality, this is not likely to occur, therefore I would like to add my own cumulative delay distribution (already computed), which takes into account the average onset time for symptoms + the delay of being tested.
I think there should be some sort of convolution being done somewhere, but I cannot figure out exactly where.

@andrybicio
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The only way that comes to my mind is to use this approach: namely to convolve the observable which takes into account the daily number of positive tests, reverse it, convolving it with the p_delay finally reverting it back.
Wondering whether something similar could be have done in the stan file, though

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