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Arithmancer

Arithmancer is a prediction market application. Users can make trades on predictions, betting on how likely an event is to occur. Each prediction is an individual market with a market maker system modeled on Robin Hanson's logarithmic market scoring rules.

This was designed and tested as an internal corporate decision market. Using outside of an organization as a general application will likely require additional features (ex. ACLs, better form validation and security, etc.).

Note: This is not an official Google product.

Arithmancer

Arithmancer Prediction

Getting Started

pip install -r requirements.txt

Download and install the Google Cloud SDK, and use dev_appserver.py to run a local server for development. Create your first prediction by going to "/predictions/create".

Prerequisites

This runs on App Engine and uses Google Cloud Datastore. Google Cloud SDK is a prerequisite for development and deployment.

Running the tests

python runner.py app_test.py

Contributing

Please read CONTRIBUTING.md for details on contributing.

Features that would be desired/on the roadmap:

  • Comments
  • ACLs for viewing and trading on a prediction
  • Search

Authors

  • Ben Goldhaber - Initial work
  • Nathan Rogers - Daily Price Cron Job

License

This project is licensed under the Apache 2 License - see the LICENSE.md file for details.

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Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule Prediction Market

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  • Python 74.7%
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