NBA Draft Study By Daniel Rose, Matthew Byrne, Scott Chen, Julia Min, Leon Luong, and Jovane Cano

Project synopsis:

Every June, hundreds of basketball players try to reach their ultimate dream they’ve had since they were young; making it to the NBA. Conversely, every June, the 30 teams hope to draft their next face of their franchise.

High school phenoms like Lebron James, college sensations like Michael Jordan, and the best players from overseas like Nikola Jokic, all come together on one night in June to see which franchise they will start their careers with.

We wanted to take a closer look at the NBA draft to see if there were any patterns or indicators from the history of the draft that would correlate with a player’s future success in the league.

Does draft position directly correlate with career earnings?​
Were there any schools that produced NBA players at a higher rate?
What geographic region produces the most NBA players?
Is there any correlation between birth month and success?

The answers to these questions could be compelling for both players with NBA dreams trying to increase their chances of making it to the league, and for NBA General Managers hoping to build their next championship team.


Summaries of findings:

Salary Analysis Per NBA draft position:
-First overall pick earns the most. Nearly 24% increase in earnings compared to 2nd overall pick.
-First round pick earns the most. First round picks average 3.4 times or 71% more than second round picks.

Draft Year Analysis:
-Players drafted in 1996 made the most. Career earnings for that year peaked at 50 million in inflation-adjusted dollars. Since then, there has been a slight downward trend. However, it is worth noting that we do not have an accurate dollar amount for those players drafted in more recent years, as they have not completed their careers.

University Analysis:
-The top 3 universities that produced the most players are:
University of Kentucky
Duke University
UCLA
-No university produced overwhelmingly more players than another.

Birthplace Analysis:
-California produced 74% more NBA players than the next highest state, New York.
-By state, California is first again here with a total career earnings of 4.51 billion dollars, also followed by New York.
-By city, players from Chicago have earned the most total career earnings (1.28 billion dollars).

Birth Month Analysis:
-February emerged as the month producing the highest number of NBA players. August produced the least.
-March produced the most #1 draft picks.


Conclusions:
-#1 picks historically make overwhelmingly more money over the course of their careers than any other draft position. Being the #1 pick is worth it.
-First round picks make more money over their careers than second round picks. Being in the first 30 picks is important!
-Kentucky produces the most NBA players, but not overwhelmingly so.
-The draft historically favors players from California.
-The Relative Age Effect proves true in that the smallest portion of NBA draftees are born in July and August. More investigation would be needed to explain why February and March produce the most players, however.


Resources:
https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/thedevastator/exploring-nba-player-performance-and-salaries-19
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS
https://www.scienceforsport.com/relative-age-effect/