2023 NBA MVP Analysis

Author: David Suryanto

Project Goal: Predict the 2023 NBA MVP purely based on stats and previous MVP winners.

Dataset:

- NBA_Dataset: https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/robertsunderhaft/nba-player-season-statistics-with-mvp-win-share

- 2023_NBA_Player_Stats: https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/iabdulw/nba-player-performance-stats

- NBA_Dataset_2: https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/vivovinco/19912021-nba-stats?select=players.csv

Table 1: MVP Winners (1982-2022)

season	player	pos	Team	pts_per_g	ast_per_g	trb_per_g	stl_per_g	blk_per_g
2022	Nikola Jokić	C	Denver Nuggets	27.1	7.9	13.8	1.5	0.9
2021	Nikola Jokić	C	Denver Nuggets	26.4	8.3	10.8	1.3	0.7
2020	Giannis Antetokounmpo	PF	Milwaukee Bucks	29.5	5.6	13.6	1.0	1.0
2019	Giannis Antetokounmpo	PF	Milwaukee Bucks	27.7	5.9	12.5	1.3	1.5
2018	James Harden	SG	Houston Rockets	30.4	8.8	5.4	1.8	0.7
2017	Russell Westbrook	PG	Oklahoma City Thunder	31.6	10.4	10.7	1.6	0.4
2016	Stephen Curry	PG	Golden State Warriors	30.1	6.7	5.4	2.1	0.2
2015	Stephen Curry	PG	Golden State Warriors	23.8	7.7	4.3	2.0	0.2
2014	Kevin Durant	SF	Oklahoma City Thunder	32.0	5.5	7.4	1.3	0.7
2013	LeBron James	PF	Miami Heat	26.8	7.3	8.0	1.7	0.9
2012	LeBron James	SF	Miami Heat	27.1	6.2	7.9	1.9	0.8
2011	Derrick Rose	PG	Chicago Bulls	25.0	7.7	4.1	1.0	0.6
2010	LeBron James	SF	Cleveland Cavaliers	29.7	8.6	7.3	1.6	1.0
2009	LeBron James	SF	Cleveland Cavaliers	28.4	7.2	7.6	1.7	1.1
2008	Kobe Bryant	SG	Los Angeles Lakers	28.3	5.4	6.3	1.8	0.5
2007	Dirk Nowitzki	PF	Dallas Mavericks	24.6	3.4	8.9	0.7	0.8
2006	Steve Nash	PG	Phoenix Suns	18.8	10.5	4.2	0.8	0.2
2005	Steve Nash	PG	Phoenix Suns	15.5	11.5	3.3	1.0	0.1
2004	Kevin Garnett	PF	Minnesota Timberwolves	24.2	5.0	13.9	1.5	2.2
2003	Tim Duncan	PF	San Antonio Spurs	23.3	3.9	12.9	0.7	2.9
2002	Tim Duncan	PF	San Antonio Spurs	25.5	3.7	12.7	0.7	2.5
2001	Allen Iverson	SG	Philadelphia 76ers	31.1	4.6	3.8	2.5	0.3
2000	Shaquille O’Neal	C	Los Angeles Lakers	29.7	3.8	13.6	0.5	3.0
1999	Karl Malone	PF	Utah Jazz	23.8	4.1	9.4	1.3	0.6
1998	Michael Jordan	SG	Chicago Bulls	28.7	3.5	5.8	1.7	0.5
1997	Karl Malone	PF	Utah Jazz	27.4	4.5	9.9	1.4	0.6
1996	Michael Jordan	SG	Chicago Bulls	30.4	4.3	6.6	2.2	0.5
1995	David Robinson	C	San Antonio Spurs	27.6	2.9	10.8	1.7	3.2
1994	Hakeem Olajuwon	C	Houston Rockets	27.3	3.6	11.9	1.6	3.7
1993	Charles Barkley	PF	Phoenix Suns	25.6	5.1	12.2	1.6	1.0
1992	Michael Jordan	SG	Chicago Bulls	30.1	6.1	6.4	2.3	0.9
1991	Michael Jordan	SG	Chicago Bulls	31.5	5.5	6.0	2.7	1.0
1990	Magic Johnson	PG	Los Angeles Lakers	22.3	11.5	6.6	1.7	0.4
1989	Magic Johnson	PG	Los Angeles Lakers	22.5	12.8	7.9	1.8	0.3
1988	Michael Jordan	SG	Chicago Bulls	35.0	5.9	5.5	3.2	1.6
1987	Magic Johnson	PG	Los Angeles Lakers	23.9	12.2	6.3	1.7	0.5
1986	Larry Bird	SF	Boston Celtics	25.8	6.8	9.8	2.0	0.6
1985	Larry Bird	SF	Boston Celtics	28.7	6.6	10.5	1.6	1.2
1984	Larry Bird	PF	Boston Celtics	24.2	6.6	10.1	1.8	0.9
1983	Moses Malone	C	Philadelphia 76ers	24.5	1.3	15.3	1.1	2.0
1982	Moses Malone	C	Houston Rockets	31.1	1.8	14.7	0.9	1.5

Table 2: MVPs Win/Loss Percentage

player	Team	season	win_loss_pct	mvp
Stephen Curry	Golden State Warriors	2016	0.890	TRUE
Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	1996	0.878	TRUE
Larry Bird	Boston Celtics	1986	0.817	TRUE
Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	1992	0.817	TRUE
Dirk Nowitzki	Dallas Mavericks	2007	0.817	TRUE
Stephen Curry	Golden State Warriors	2015	0.817	TRUE
Shaquille O’Neal	Los Angeles Lakers	2000	0.817	TRUE
LeBron James	Cleveland Cavaliers	2009	0.805	TRUE
LeBron James	Miami Heat	2013	0.805	TRUE
James Harden	Houston Rockets	2018	0.793	TRUE
Magic Johnson	Los Angeles Lakers	1987	0.793	TRUE
Moses Malone	Philadelphia 76ers	1983	0.793	TRUE
Karl Malone	Utah Jazz	1997	0.780	TRUE
Larry Bird	Boston Celtics	1985	0.768	TRUE
Magic Johnson	Los Angeles Lakers	1990	0.768	TRUE
Giannis Antetokounmpo	Milwaukee Bucks	2020	0.767	TRUE
Larry Bird	Boston Celtics	1984	0.756	TRUE
Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	1998	0.756	TRUE
Derrick Rose	Chicago Bulls	2011	0.756	TRUE
Charles Barkley	Phoenix Suns	1993	0.756	TRUE
Steve Nash	Phoenix Suns	2005	0.756	TRUE
David Robinson	San Antonio Spurs	1995	0.756	TRUE
Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	1991	0.744	TRUE
LeBron James	Cleveland Cavaliers	2010	0.744	TRUE
Karl Malone	Utah Jazz	1999	0.740	TRUE
Giannis Antetokounmpo	Milwaukee Bucks	2019	0.732	TRUE
Tim Duncan	San Antonio Spurs	2003	0.732	TRUE
Kevin Durant	Oklahoma City Thunder	2014	0.720	TRUE
Hakeem Olajuwon	Houston Rockets	1994	0.707	TRUE
Kevin Garnett	Minnesota Timberwolves	2004	0.707	TRUE
Tim Duncan	San Antonio Spurs	2002	0.707	TRUE
LeBron James	Miami Heat	2012	0.697	TRUE
Magic Johnson	Los Angeles Lakers	1989	0.695	TRUE
Kobe Bryant	Los Angeles Lakers	2008	0.695	TRUE
Allen Iverson	Philadelphia 76ers	2001	0.683	TRUE
Steve Nash	Phoenix Suns	2006	0.659	TRUE
Nikola Jokić	Denver Nuggets	2021	0.653	TRUE
Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	1988	0.610	TRUE
Nikola Jokić	Denver Nuggets	2022	0.585	TRUE
Russell Westbrook	Oklahoma City Thunder	2017	0.573	TRUE
Moses Malone	Houston Rockets	1982	0.561	TRUE

Note: Only 11 out of the 41 (26.8%) MVP winners from 1982-2022 have win/loss percentage below 70% and only 3 of them are below 60%.

Graph: Correlation Between MVP Share and PER rating

Note: MVPs average PER rating = 28.3 and Non-MVPs average PER rating = 12.7. This proves how crucial it is for NBA players to have a high PER rating in order to be considered in the MVP race.

Graph: Correlation Between MVP Share and Win Share

Note: MVPs average win share = 16.02 and Non-MVPs average win share = 2.62. This proves how crucial it is for NBA players to have a high win share % in order to be considered in the MVP race.

Graph: Correlation Between MVP Share and True Shooting %

Note: MVPs average true shooting(%) = 59.3% and Non-MVPs average true shooting(%) = 51.3%. This proves how crucial it is for NBA players to have a high true shooting % in order to be considered in the MVP race.

Decision Tree Model

formula <- award_share ~ mp_per_g + g + pts_per_g + trb_per_g + ast_per_g + stl_per_g + blk_per_g + fg_pct + win_loss_pct + per + ows + dws + ws_per_48 + obpm + dbpm + ts_pct

tree_model <- rpart(formula, data = train_data)

Testing the Decision Tree Model for the Highest Predicted MVP Award Share and Actual MVP Winners for each year

	Season	Player	Team	Predicted_Award_Share	Actual_MVP
11475	1982	Julius Erving	Philadelphia 76ers	0.7509286	FALSE
11489	1983	Moses Malone	Philadelphia 76ers	0.7509286	TRUE
1179	1984	Larry Bird	Boston Celtics	0.7509286	TRUE
1191	1985	Larry Bird	Boston Celtics	0.7509286	TRUE
1204	1986	Larry Bird	Boston Celtics	0.7509286	TRUE
7240	1987	Magic Johnson	Los Angeles Lakers	0.8342941	TRUE
2219	1988	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.8342941	TRUE
2231	1989	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.8342941	FALSE
2243	1990	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.8342941	FALSE
2256	1991	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.8342941	TRUE
2267	1992	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.8342941	TRUE
2280	1993	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.8342941	FALSE
13806	1994	David Robinson	San Antonio Spurs	0.8342941	FALSE
13820	1995	David Robinson	San Antonio Spurs	0.8342941	TRUE
2324	1996	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.8342941	TRUE
2337	1997	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.8342941	FALSE
2352	1998	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.7509286	TRUE
13862	1999	Tim Duncan	San Antonio Spurs	0.7509286	FALSE
7413	2000	Shaquille O’Neal	Los Angeles Lakers	0.8342941	TRUE
13892	2001	Tim Duncan	San Antonio Spurs	0.7509286	FALSE
13907	2002	Tim Duncan	San Antonio Spurs	0.5092500	TRUE
13922	2003	Tim Duncan	San Antonio Spurs	0.7509286	TRUE
9346	2004	Kevin Garnett	Minnesota Timberwolves	0.7509286	TRUE
3540	2005	Dirk Nowitzki	Dallas Mavericks	0.7509286	FALSE
3007	2006	LeBron James	Cleveland Cavaliers	0.5092500	FALSE
3571	2007	Dirk Nowitzki	Dallas Mavericks	0.8342941	TRUE
9656	2008	Chris Paul	New Orleans Pelicans	0.8342941	FALSE
3044	2009	LeBron James	Cleveland Cavaliers	0.8342941	TRUE
3059	2010	LeBron James	Cleveland Cavaliers	0.8342941	TRUE
2527	2011	Derrick Rose	Chicago Bulls	0.7509286	TRUE
8454	2012	LeBron James	Miami Heat	0.7509286	TRUE
8469	2013	LeBron James	Miami Heat	0.8342941	TRUE
8482	2014	LeBron James	Miami Heat	0.8342941	FALSE
5329	2015	Stephen Curry	Golden State Warriors	0.8342941	TRUE
5345	2016	Stephen Curry	Golden State Warriors	0.8342941	TRUE
14137	2017	Kawhi Leonard	San Antonio Spurs	0.7509286	FALSE
5934	2018	James Harden	Houston Rockets	0.8342941	TRUE
9101	2019	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Milwaukee Bucks	0.7509286	TRUE
9116	2020	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Milwaukee Bucks	0.7509286	TRUE
4311	2021	Nikola Jokić	Denver Nuggets	0.8342941	TRUE
4329	2022	Nikola Jokić	Denver Nuggets	0.8342941	TRUE

Note: Only 28 out of the 41 (68%) predicted results match the actual winners

Top 5 Predicted 2023 MVP Candidates (Decision Tree)

	Player	Team	Predicted_Award_Share
149	Nikola Jokić	Denver Nuggets	0.8342941
435	Joel Embiid	Philadelphia 76ers	0.3402222
26	Jayson Tatum	Boston Celtics	0.3095882
338	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Milwaukee Bucks	0.3095882
235	Tyrese Haliburton	Indiana Pacers	0.2175000

Predicted Winner: Nikola Jokic

Linear Regression Model

lm_model <- lm(award_share ~ mp_per_g + pts_per_g + trb_per_g + ast_per_g + stl_per_g + blk_per_g + ws + ws_per_48 + win_loss_pct + per + ts_pct, data = train_data)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = award_share ~ mp_per_g + pts_per_g + trb_per_g + 
##     ast_per_g + stl_per_g + blk_per_g + ws + ws_per_48 + win_loss_pct + 
##     per + ts_pct, data = train_data)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -0.13963 -0.01119 -0.00066  0.00920  0.85575 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)   0.0578997  0.0047906  12.086  < 2e-16 ***
## mp_per_g     -0.0050055  0.0001575 -31.777  < 2e-16 ***
## pts_per_g     0.0054156  0.0002372  22.832  < 2e-16 ***
## trb_per_g     0.0028212  0.0003612   7.811 6.15e-15 ***
## ast_per_g     0.0059388  0.0004306  13.790  < 2e-16 ***
## stl_per_g     0.0055241  0.0016854   3.278 0.001050 ** 
## blk_per_g     0.0079978  0.0012916   6.192 6.13e-10 ***
## ws            0.0082347  0.0003202  25.714  < 2e-16 ***
## ws_per_48     0.0941393  0.0135818   6.931 4.38e-12 ***
## win_loss_pct -0.0126533  0.0037025  -3.417 0.000634 ***
## per          -0.0021069  0.0002599  -8.108 5.65e-16 ***
## ts_pct       -0.0378751  0.0078671  -4.814 1.49e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.05029 on 12337 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.2277, Adjusted R-squared:  0.227 
## F-statistic: 330.6 on 11 and 12337 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Testing the Model for the Highest Predicted MVP Award Share and Actual MVP Winners for each year

	Season	Player	Team	Predicted_Award_Share	Actual_MVP
5456	1982	Moses Malone	Houston Rockets	0.1471796	TRUE
11489	1983	Moses Malone	Philadelphia 76ers	0.1387129	TRUE
16576	1984	Adrian Dantley	Utah Jazz	0.1377478	FALSE
1191	1985	Larry Bird	Boston Celtics	0.1668463	TRUE
1204	1986	Larry Bird	Boston Celtics	0.1581273	TRUE
2209	1987	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.2007756	FALSE
2219	1988	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.2324768	TRUE
2231	1989	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.2196887	FALSE
2243	1990	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.2087065	FALSE
2256	1991	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.2142673	TRUE
2267	1992	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.1818009	TRUE
2280	1993	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.1854865	FALSE
13806	1994	David Robinson	San Antonio Spurs	0.2085711	FALSE
13820	1995	David Robinson	San Antonio Spurs	0.1759657	TRUE
2324	1996	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.1968690	TRUE
2337	1997	Michael Jordan	Chicago Bulls	0.1707122	FALSE
16757	1998	Karl Malone	Utah Jazz	0.1514324	FALSE
7398	1999	Shaquille O’Neal	Los Angeles Lakers	0.0911295	FALSE
7413	2000	Shaquille O’Neal	Los Angeles Lakers	0.1893195	TRUE
7428	2001	Shaquille O’Neal	Los Angeles Lakers	0.1508706	FALSE
13907	2002	Tim Duncan	San Antonio Spurs	0.1575606	TRUE
11202	2003	Tracy McGrady	Orlando Magic	0.1668775	FALSE
9346	2004	Kevin Garnett	Minnesota Timberwolves	0.1712243	TRUE
9363	2005	Kevin Garnett	Minnesota Timberwolves	0.1470768	FALSE
7491	2006	Kobe Bryant	Los Angeles Lakers	0.1591710	FALSE
3571	2007	Dirk Nowitzki	Dallas Mavericks	0.1344831	TRUE
9656	2008	Chris Paul	New Orleans Pelicans	0.1630815	FALSE
3044	2009	LeBron James	Cleveland Cavaliers	0.2031260	TRUE
3059	2010	LeBron James	Cleveland Cavaliers	0.1947073	TRUE
8438	2011	LeBron James	Miami Heat	0.1471193	FALSE
8454	2012	LeBron James	Miami Heat	0.1439988	TRUE
8469	2013	LeBron James	Miami Heat	0.1840794	TRUE
10513	2014	Kevin Durant	Oklahoma City Thunder	0.1947372	TRUE
5891	2015	James Harden	Houston Rockets	0.1680161	FALSE
5345	2016	Stephen Curry	Golden State Warriors	0.1923157	TRUE
10564	2017	Russell Westbrook	Oklahoma City Thunder	0.1960873	TRUE
5934	2018	James Harden	Houston Rockets	0.1861329	TRUE
5951	2019	James Harden	Houston Rockets	0.2021100	FALSE
5965	2020	James Harden	Houston Rockets	0.1802898	FALSE
4311	2021	Nikola Jokić	Denver Nuggets	0.1783051	TRUE
4329	2022	Nikola Jokić	Denver Nuggets	0.1897997	TRUE

Note: Only 23 out of the 41 (56%) predicted results match the actual winners

Top 5 Predicted 2023 MVP Candidates (Linear Regression)

	Player	Team	Predicted_Award_Share
149	Nikola Jokić	Denver Nuggets	0.1779916
435	Joel Embiid	Philadelphia 76ers	0.1635632
135	Luka Dončić	Dallas Mavericks	0.1498715
338	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Milwaukee Bucks	0.1417705
409	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	Oklahoma City Thunder	0.1396123

Predicted Winner: Nikola Jokic

Conclusion

While our analysis has shown that player performance metrics can be a useful predictor for NBA MVP awards, it’s important to note that declaring the MVP has not always been purely based on players’ stats or performance. Social media, media coverage, and people’s bias opinions have also had an impact on the decision-making process. For example, many believe that Nikola Jokic should have won the 2023 NBA MVP but since this award will make him a 3-time back-to-back NBA MVP winner, that will put him into the GOAT (Greatest Of All Time) conversation which some people can’t accept yet. During an interview between an NBA legend Kevin Garnett and an NBA All Star Demarcous Cousins on the “KG Certified” talk show, Cousins said “I’m not okay with being three MVPs in a row because it then becomes a conversation of, is this the best basketball player to ever touch a basketball?” Then he continues by saying “Not saying he doesn’t deserve more down the road. But at this stage in his career, I’m not okay with saying that. He hasn’t won anything. He hasn’t been to a final. It’s a lot of things still in play for that.” Therefore, it’s crucial to consider these factors alongside player performance metrics when evaluating potential MVP candidates.