When this number
is less than this number
we will have started trending in the right direction.
For the US data, cases reported today are an accurate predictor of deaths 21-28 days in the future.
The assumption is that the number of deaths today is a function of the number of cases discovered at some point in the past. Using The COVID Tracking Project's data and linear regression, find the best correlation between past cases and deaths at a future date.
The prediction curves below are a linear function of cases, but offset by a number of days.
