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Do returns predict future sales? For the GrupoBimbo Inventory Demand competition

I played around a bit in the Grupo Bimbo Inventory Demand kaggle, just to get experience working with a dataset that was 3.2 GB and 74 million rows, and to submit to my first real Kaggle competition. Although I didn't rank very high, I did one investigation that took a different angle from most people: looking for evidence of a causal effect of one variable on another with a time lag, in this case whether the number of returns for a product predicted whether the client would buy more or not.

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To rerun it requires that the train.csv data file for the competition is in the directory '../input' relative to the notebook.

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A targeted data analysis for the the GrupoBimbo Inventory Demand competition on Kaggle

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