Available data

[danhammer]

The value added of our web service is two-fold:

1. Expert delivery of environmentally based information.
2. Interpretation of multiple raw data streams into a single, financial metric.

We have a few constituent REST services available. I will list the ones we have already here:

1. Esri geocoding service No API key required.

   example: geocode.arcgis.com/arcgis/rest/services/World/GeocodeServer/findAddressCandidates?SingleLine=380+New+York+Street,+Redlands,+CA+92373&f=pjson

2. Zillow web service Note the API key in the query.

   example:
   www.zillow.com/webservice/GetSearchResults.htm?zws-id=X1-ZWz19l1vnzxtzf_ac8os&address=2114+Bigelow+Ave&citystatezip=Seattle+WA

3. NOAA coastal sea level rise. This is an image server. Note that the returned value field is sea level rise in feet.

   example:
   http://earthgenomevm.cloudapp.net:6080/arcgis/rest/services/SLR_Depth_6ft/ImageServer/identify?geometry={x:-79.91985,y:32.862202}&geometryType=esriGeometryPoint&returnGeometry=false&returnCatalogItems=false&f=pjson

This list in incomplete. Please list other data sets that you think would be helpful. For example, we still have to get data on the following:

1. Climate change scenarios and the associated sea level rise
2. Real interest rates over time

[danhammer]

@WheelerDR This issue should be of particular interest to you.

[danhammer]

Other data sets that are relevant to incorporate into the valuation:

1. Cost of weather and climate disasters.
2. Flood frequency.
3. Inundation uncertainty.
4. Coastal insurance information .
5. FEMA flood map service center with Esri API queries.
6. National flood insurance program.
7. Contact for participating flood insurance providers via URL.
8. Factors used to calculate flood insurance premiums and how this may change in the presence of SLR.

It seems to me that all of these data sets must be used in order to adequately and comprehensively assess the impact of sea level rise on coastal real estate. @glenearthgenome, this post is mainly in response to our phone call.

This brings the calculation into stark relief. SLR has implications on houses near the floodplain in the next decade as a result of insurance regulations, even if the value of housing does not go to zero. This may be an opportunity for a freemium model of payment. We offer the amoritized value of SLR on coastal properties for free. If the homeowner wants to know exactly how much their flood insurance rates are legislated to rise over the next decade, then we offer that at a cost -- with contact information of the insurance agent to verify the calculation.

[danhammer]

There are additional data on FEMA requirements.

1. FEMA Flood insurance rate maps
2. FEMA flood maps
3. Flood partners (possible competitor)
4. National flood insurance program

What are the underlying factors of these flood maps, which determine the mandated insurance rates? What happens when those factors change as a result of climate change or shifting weather patterns?

[glenearthgenome]

Agree that these are the essential datasets. I have a bunch of reactions...

1. We need to estimate three highly related things:
   1a) Rise in water over time (sea level rise) and how much flooding will occur given that. This is a biophysical estimation...it has nothing to do with financials
   1b) The incremental "operating" costs of flooding (e.g. cost of repairing flood damage). This likely results in higher flood insurance costs and should be reflected in FIRMs that are provided by FEMA
   1c) The resulting decline in home value (e.g. a home that is at risk of falling into the ocean is less valuable). This is NOT a flooding financial impact. It is a decline in the resell value of the home

For 1b above, this makes me ponder the following: The key question is whether we are suggesting our flooding modeling inform actual changes to the FIRM (flood insurance rate map) for a specific home and area?

-If "yes", we need to adhere to whatever policies and algorithms that FEMA uses in estimating insurance rates. I would think this requires us calling FEMA and interviewing them. We would likely have to plug in our water estimates into their existing scientific models and actuarial estimates
-If "no", I think we are proposing that our service tells a more accurate picture than FIRM reports. I would think that would be a provocative stance for us to take but one maybe worth doing. In this case, we could use other methodologies if we thought that more accurate...although in the end we'll need to reconcile the two methodologies for sure since ultimately flood insurance rates are dictated by FIRMs

2. How often are FIRM reports now updated? This may give us a clue for how current existing maps are accurate or not. Also, I would presume that few FIRMs (if any) include a predictive or future looking component. I assume that is an underlying premise for the value of our work. Today the FIRMs tell best estimated current flood risk...but they do NOT try and predict future risk. I would assume estimating future flood risk (which is probably not estimated by FEMA) is the real value of our service. In this case, we would highly focus on making our future estimates the best available in the market

For 1c above, of course the future increased risk of flooding is highly correlated to sea level rise. But I think it important to note that they are not perfectly correlated. Does sea level risk always equate to greater flooding damage? Probably not 100% of the time.

In summary, these documents trigger for me that we really need to model two things:

1. Flooding. Improved estimates of current flooding risk. Best available estimates for future flooding risk. May or may not lead to official changes in FIRM. Key financial impact is higher costs in repairing flood damage and higher flood insurance rates
2. Sea level rise. Improved estimates of how sea level rise will affect a particular home (calculated separately from flooding). Key financial impact is on higher/lower value of the home. This calculation is independent of FEMA methodologies and actuarial estimates