This repository is set up to contribute to the Covid-19 Forecast Hub, which is hosted by Reich Lab. See the docs/SMG.md for technical submission details, or see our fork of the project.
We use an ensemble of models to forecast deaths from Covid-19 in US states. These include:
- Rt estimation (
EpiNow2):models/rt - Deaths as a convolution of cases (
EpiNow2):models/deaths-conv-cases - A mean ensemble of time series approaches:
models/timeseries
These models are then ensembled using quantile regression averaging over a range of horizons and training windows. The final submission is then selected using proper scoring rules from scoringutils.
We output 1 to 4 week ahead forecasts of weekly cumulative and incident deaths, for the US and selected US states. See the project board for ongoing work.
For national and sub-national Rt estimates and forecasts in other countries, see our website.
LSHTM, Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease:
- Sam Abbott (@seabbs)
- Kath Sherratt (@kathsherratt)
- Nikos Bosse (@nikosbosse)
- Sophie Meakin (@sophiemeakin)
- Sebastian Funk (@sbfnk) and Epiforecasts team