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# [Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of Covid-19 across European nations](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.06.16.22276024)
# Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of Covid-19 across European nations
[![DOI](https://zenodo.org/badge/434779787.svg)](https://zenodo.org/badge/latestdoi/434779787)

MedRxiv: [https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.06.16.22276024](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.06.16.22276024)
### Project guide

Code: [![DOI](https://zenodo.org/badge/434779787.svg)](https://zenodo.org/badge/latestdoi/434779787)
This repository provides code and data for analysing COVID-19 forecasts from the [European COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://github.com/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/covid19-forecast-hub-europe). It is associated with the paper, "Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of Covid-19 across European nations" (Sherratt and others, 2023).

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### This project

This repository provides code and data for analysing a year of COVID-19 forecasts from the [European COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://github.com/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/covid19-forecast-hub-europe).

All code is open source and anyone is welcome to freely use and adapt any part of this codebase for any purpose.
- The paper is now published and available at [eLife](https://elifesciences.org/articles/81916) or [medRxiv](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.06.16.22276024).
- All code is open source and anyone is welcome to freely use and adapt any part of this codebase for any purpose.

You can find here:

- The latest manuscript in [pdf](output/latest.pdf) or [Rmarkdown](analysis/latest.Rmd), now published as a [pre-print](https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.06.16.22276024) and submitted to eLife
- The latest manuscript in [pdf](output/latest.pdf) or [Rmarkdown](analysis/latest.Rmd)
- A [modular codebase](code) for downloading and summarising data from the European Forecast Hub

All feedback is very welcome - just open an [Issue](https://github.com/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/euro-hub-ensemble/issues) with your comments. We would especially appreciate thoughts on:
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- Ease of use as an example for extracting, transforming, and loading Forecast Hub data (particularly from the perspective of users who are less/un-familiar with using data stored on Github)
- Further thoughts and priorities for the analysis of COVID-19 individual and ensemble forecasts

### This repository
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#### Workflow
### Workflow

A brief guide to the files in this repository:

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