This repository containts the Python code base for Saintilan et al. 2020: "Thresholds of mangrove survival under rapid sea level rise"
Saintilan et al. (2020) is published in Science.
Project abstract:
The rate of sea level rise has doubled from 1.8 millimeters per year over the 20th century to ∼3.4 millimeters per year in recent years. Saintilan et al. investigated the likely effects of this increasing rate of rise on coastal mangrove forest, a tropical ecosystem of key importance for coastal protection (see the Perspective by Lovelock). They reviewed data on mangrove accretion 10,000 to 7000 years before present, when the rate of sea level rise was even higher than today as a result of glacial ice melt. Their analysis suggests an upper threshold of 7 millimeters per year as the maximum rate of sea level rise associated with mangrove vertical development, beyond which the ecosystem fails to keep up with the change. Under projected rates of sea level rise, they predict that a deficit between accretion and sea level rise is likely to commence in the next 30 years.
If you have any questions, comments, or feedback on this work or code, please contact Erica
- Pandas 0.19.2
- Matplotlib 1.5.3
- NumPy 1.16.0
- SciPy 1.4.1
- statsmodels 0.11.1
- scikit-learn 0.23
(under construction)
- Erica Ashe, PhD - Co-author, Bayesian Statistics - GitHub
- Prof. Neil Saintilan
- Prof. Nicole S. Khan
- Jeffrey. J. Kelleway, PhD
- Kerrylee Rogers, PhD
- Prof. Colin D. Woodroffe
- Prof. Benjamin P. Horton
GNU Affero General Public License v3.0
We thank J. Mitrovica of Harvard University for providing the GIA model. T. A. Shaw of Nanyang Technology University assisted with the preparation of the figures. Figure 1 used the image library of the Integration and Application Network, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (ian.umces.edu/imagelibrary/). Funding: N.S. was supported by an Outside Studies Program grant from Macquarie University and AINSE. B.P.H. is supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund MOE2018-T2-1-030, the National Research Foundation Singapore, and the Singapore Ministry of Education, under the Research Centers of Excellence initiative. This article is a contribution to PALSEA2 (Palaeo-Constraints on Sea-Level Rise), a working group of the International Union for Quaternary Sciences (INQUA), and International Geoscience Program (IGCP) Project 639, “Sea-Level Changes from Minutes to Millennia.” This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution 294. K.R. received funding from the Australian Research Council (FT130100532)
Copyright (C) 2020 by Erica L. Ashe This program is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later version. This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the GNU General Public License for more details. A copy of the GNU General Public License comes with this program. If not, see http://www.gnu.org/licenses/.