Round 4
In Round 4, we aim to explore the impact of two biological scenario axes on the COVID-19 burden in the EU/EEA. The first axis relates to the extent of waning immunity that is obtained from past vaccinations, past infections, or both (hybrid immunity). The second axis explores different scenarios on the emergence of a new SARS-CoV-2 (sub-)variants. This scenario round will yield crucial epidemiological insights for public health professionals and the people in the the EU/EEA, by exploring plausible future scenarios in which the COVID-19 pandemic situation is dominated by uncertainty pertaining to virological and immunological drivers.
- We request submissions by 17 March 2023
- Scenario details
- Submission information and key dates
- Any feedback is welcome
No new variant
|
New variant (sub-lineage) X
|
|
Optimistic waning
|
Scenario A | Scenario B |
Pessimistic waning
|
Scenario C | Scenario D |
Below we cover scenario details for:
See elsewhere: data links for cross-European data sources.
We consider two scenarios for immunity waning.
-
Optimistic waning
- Protection against infection: 6 months median time to transition to 70% of the initial immunity (decrease of 30%)
- Protection against severe outcomes: no waning
-
Pessimistic waning
- Protection against infection: 6 months median time to transition to 40% of the initial immunity (decrease of 60%)
- Protection against severe outcomes: 6 months median time to transition to 80% of the initial immunity (decrease of 20%)
We ask all modellers to include the following parameters:
- No plateau existing for immunity against infection
- The parameters for the waning speed of protection relate to the waning since the most recent vaccination or infection
Modellers should use their own judgement and relevant literature if making assumptions about the following:
- Functional shape of waning immunity against infection and against severe outcomes (following the above specified decrease of immunity against infection within the specified time frame)
We look at the impact of a new variant (sub-lineage).
-
Baseline: No new variant
-
New variant (sub-lineage) X
- Introduction: From 1st May 2023, at least of 0.1% of all new infections are due to a new variant X over 16 weeks
- Characteristics: Variant X has 30% immune escape against infection and 0% immune escape against severe outcomes, and the same intrinsic transmissibility and severity and currently dominant Omicron sub-lineange(s). The immune escape relates to all types of immunity (vaccine induced, past infection(s), hybrid immunity)
- No new public health and social measures (non-pharmaceutical interventions / NPIs)
- No changes in demography
- No novel drugs that significantly alleviate the COVID-19 burden
- No new vaccination campaigns, vaccination uptake continues with the current trends
- The absolute value of vaccine effectiveness and protection from past infections for all outcomes
- Contact rates in response to infection rates
- Impact of seasonality, including seasonal behavioural changes
- Projection period is March 15th 2023 to December 31st 2023
- We ask that teams no longer include the following fields (columns):
-
origin_date(redundant with the file name) -
target_end_date(redundant with thehorizonfield)
-
Teams can submit any of the below targets.
| Target | target_variable |
Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Incident infections | inc infection |
Please only provide incident cases (inc case) if unable to model infections |
| Incident hospital admissions | inc hosp |
We no longer ask for ICU (critical care) admissions |
| Incident deaths | inc death |
We ask for submissions to include results for each of three age groups, identified in a new column age_id. We suggest age brackets below.
| Age group | age_id |
|---|---|
| Children (0-17 years) | child |
| Adult (18-59 years) | adult |
| Older population (60+ years) | older |
| Age breakdown not available | Do not include age_id column |
- If your model is already age-structured and it is difficult to change the exact age-bands, please follow as closely as you can and let us know where your age-groups differ
- If a breakdown by age is not possible, please continue to submit for all age groups combined (and leave out the
age_idcolumn)
Please use the following codes to identify between scenarios in the scenario_id column, with one for each value (row) in your submission csv.
| Scenario | scenario_id |
|---|---|
| Scenario A. No new variant, optimistic waning | A |
| Scenario B. New variant X, optimistic waning | B |
| Scenario C. No new variant, pessimistic waning | C |
| Scenario D. New variant X, pessimistic waning | D |
Please include an abstract for your model as part of your submission.
- Copy the Round 4 Abstract template
- Complete where you can - all comments are appreciated
- Save this to the
model-abstracts/2023-03-15folder, adjusting the filename toMyTeam-MyModel.md
The dates for Round 4 are:
| Round 4 date | |
|---|---|
| Submissions due | March 17 2023 |
| End date for fitting data (last day of epiweek) | March 14 2023 |
origin_date (first possible date of a daily simulation) |
March 15 2022 |