the streamflow is derived from the volume using kNN and the same predictors used for the regressions. In this the method of regression doesn't affect significally the resultant error (see some metrics below)
The forecast ensembles spread change along the year for different initialisation times.
1st MAY
1st JULY
1st SEPTEMBER
1st NOVEMBER
1st MAY
1st JULY
1st SEPTEMBER
1st NOVEMBER
Continous Ranked Probability Skill Score (skill for many predictions)
CRPSS with latitude and month of initialisation
percentage bias
root mean square error
scatter plot of observed vs predicted
