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2020 General Election Results #266
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States that cheat will be canceled by the New Republican House, if the
model fails to include that it is canceled now.
…On Sun, Oct 18, 2020 at 7:28 PM Mike Vastola ***@***.***> wrote:
Can you provide any insight into how (if at all) data sources will be
updated as election results roll in on Nov 3rd?
For instance, in the presidential toplines
<https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-general-data/presidential_national_toplines_2020.csv>
will the fields
<https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/election-forecasts-2020#presidential-forecast>
ecwin_inc and ecwin_chal (or some other value) be updated to reflect
probabilities that take into account exit polls and/or precinct data as it
comes in?
And/or will those (or other) fields change to 1 or 0 as states are
called? If so, what source (i.e. authority) will be relied on to determine
if a state can be called?
Thanks a lot for providing this data!
PS: If no such updates to the data will be made, can you indicate when the
final update to this data will be released?
Thanks again!
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For the Democratic primaries, they froze their forecasts on the day of major primaries. See South Carolina, Super Tuesday and a week after, and more that I can't find. I imagine they'll do the same for the general, though I don't work there and can't speak for sure! |
Can you provide any insight into how (if at all) data sources will be updated as election results roll in on Nov 3rd?
For instance, in the presidential toplines will the fields
ecwin_inc
andecwin_chal
(or some other value) be updated to reflect probabilities that take into account exit polls and/or precinct data as it comes in?And/or will those (or other) fields change to
1
or0
as states are called? If so, what source (i.e. authority) will be relied on to determine if a state can be called?Thanks a lot for providing this data!
PS: If no such updates to the data will be made, can you indicate when the final update to this data will be released?
Thanks again!
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