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Implement intialisation strategy for paid_employment #185

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pausz opened this issue Sep 1, 2023 · 4 comments
Closed

Implement intialisation strategy for paid_employment #185

pausz opened this issue Sep 1, 2023 · 4 comments
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enhancement New feature or request

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@pausz
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pausz commented Sep 1, 2023

Current implementation for paid_employment:

  • for women aged < 15: assign probability 0
  • for women aged >=50: assign probability 0 which seems unrealistic.
@pausz pausz added the enhancement New feature or request label Sep 1, 2023
@pausz pausz self-assigned this Sep 1, 2023
@pausz pausz changed the title Implement intialisation strategy for paid_emplyment Implement intialisation strategy for paid_employment Sep 1, 2023
@pausz pausz changed the title Implement intialisation strategy for paid_employment Implement intialisation strategy for paid_employment Sep 1, 2023
@pausz pausz mentioned this issue Sep 2, 2023
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@pausz
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pausz commented Sep 7, 2023

Update: @mzimmermann-IDM will look into extrapolating values in the input datasets

@mzimmermann-IDM
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I put the inflection point for this one at age 25. It does look like there's more of a peak from age 35-45, so maybe this is too simplified. But we don't necessarily need all the detail.
image

Parameterization:
0.6198487 at age 25
slope <25, 6.216042e-02 (SE 2.062729e-03)
slope >25, 0.0008010242 (SE 0.0592966648)

@pausz
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pausz commented Sep 21, 2023

@mzimmermann-IDM Once I implemented the piecewise linear parameterisation, I noticed that for ages < 15 we would get negative proportions/probabilities. To overcome this I've implemented an asymmetric logistic function.
Data, linear and logistic fits are shown below:

image

The fitting process is done right after loading empowerment data , so in principle we can change the function that we fit to data. We wouldn't have to change the parameterisation if the data source changes either (eg, we use a dataset from a different year).

Let me know if you think of any potential issues we may have with this approach. For instance, I noticed that the logistic fit in the figure doesn't reach to 0 for ages < 5 years old -- it's very small approx 0.04. I'll look into that next.

If the logistic fit is not the best approximation, we can use a multi-piecewise linear approximation:

  • women aged < 15: assign probability 0
  • women aged >=15 <60: piecewise linear approximation of DHS data with the parameterisation you suggested.
  • women aged >= 60 (retirement age in Kenya) linear approximation with a negative slope

@pausz
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pausz commented Sep 21, 2023

Paid employment with more segments to the piecewiselinear parameterisation:

image

Choice of additional inflection points and slopes are in kenya.py

@pausz pausz closed this as completed Oct 4, 2023
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