jobs-day-arima-forecast

SIMPLE ARIMA FORECAST OF BLS NONFARM PAYROLLS.

This script (and accompanying data file) produces auto-ARIMA forecasts of BLS NSA payrolls, as well as implied BLS seasonal adjustment factors. Combines into a 12-month-ahead forecast of monthly SA nonfarm payrolls.

Running Instructions

1. Update the monthly start/end date. start_f should be the start of the forecast period (generally the current month). end_f must be 11 months after start_f.
2. Make sure the working directory is pointing at the right folder.
3. Update data.csv using the latest data from BLS. Make sure to extend the empty rows too. Source (NSA Payrolls): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001 Source (SA Payrolls): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
4. Run from command line: python arima_jobs_day.py

Installation Instructions

Note: First time use may require installation of pyramid.arima, matplotlib and statsmodels Python packages. Requires Python 3.5. Mac Terminal commands:

pip install pyramid-arima

pip install -U statsmodels

pip install matplotlib

See requirements.txt for version requirements. Newer versions of statsmodels appear to be incompatible with pyramid.arima. Installing the exact versions required can be accomplished with the following code:

pip install -r requirements.txt

Author: Andrew Chamberlain, Ph.D.

Glassdoor Economic Research (glassdoor.com/research)

October 2018