Designing a Machine Learning algorithm to predict stock prices is a subject of interest for economists and machine learning practitioners. Financial modelling is a challenging task, not only from an analytical perspective but also from a psychological perspective. After 2008 financial crisis, many financial companies and investors shifted their interest towards predicting future trends. Most of the existing methods for stock price forecasting are modelled using non-linear methods and evaluated on specific data sets. These models are not able to generalize for diverse datasets. Financial time series data is highly dynamic in nature and makes it difficult to analyze through statistical methods. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) based Long Short- Term Memory (LSTM) networks were able to capture the patterns of the sequences data meanwhile statistical methods tried to generalize by memorizing data instead of recognizing patterns. In this work, we examined the performance of LSTM model and statistical models over stock prices of different companies to generalize the model. The experimental results of this study show that, LSTM network outperformed traditional statistical methods like ARIMA, MA and AR models. Furthermore, we have noticed that, LSTM network was able to perform consistently on different data sets while statistical methods showed varied performance. Through this project, we addressed the gaps in current models of stock price prediction in both economic and machine learning perspective.
In this demo, different models are compared to understand the capability of effectively predicting and analysing stock prices. In particular, this demo includes, autoregression model, ARIMA model, LSTM based models. A brief comparison is included for hypermeter tuning of the LSTM model.