ernie

PERT Project planning in Haskell. Generates a PERT chart and computes the critical path and duration quantiles based on simulations.

Usage

• There is a CLI that takes task lists (in YAML) and produces PERT charts (in DOT format). The simplest way to run it is ernie -f project.yaml. The YAML file has a list of tasks with dependencies and estimates:

- name: Build backend
  estimate: [0.5, 1.5, 4]
- name: Build frontend
  estimate: [2, 4.5, 7]
  depends:
    - Build backend
  group: Phase 1
- name: Write docs (1)
  key: D
  estimate: [3, 4, 9]
  depends:
    - Build backend
  group: Phase 1
- name: User testing
  estimate: [3, 5, 8]
  depends:
    - Build frontend
  group: Phase 1
- name: Write docs (2)
  estimate: [2, 4, 9]
  depends:
    - D
    - Build frontend
  group: Phase 1
- name: Deploy
  estimate: [3, 3.5, 8]
  depends:
    - User testing
    - Write docs (2)

The resulting chart shows the dependencies, PERT estimates, and simulation output for each task:

• You can also use it as a Haskell library, see Ernie.Example.

Design Choices

Task durations are entered as PERT estimates, but internally we treat them as probability distributions. As a result we get a distribution of possible realisations of the entire project (this distribution can be sampled from using Ernie.Sample.sample). The probabilistic approach has some consequences for how we calculate durations.

1. The critical path in a PERT chart is usually defined as the longest path from start to finish. The name comes from the fact that a delay in a task on this critical path invariably results in a delay of the entire project. However, if you think about a diamond-shaped dependency (like the example above), it is clear that either of the two tasks in the middle can be on the critical paths, depending on which of them takes longer. So in the probabilistic setting the critical path is a distribution, not a single path. We account for this by computing a "probability of being on the critical path" for each task. This is the CP value in the charts.
2. PERT assumes that minimum and maximum values for task durations can be determined. From a risk management perspective it doesn't make sense to specify absolute min/max values for task durations - anyone who has ever done any programming knows that the true upper bound of every task is infinity (and the lower bound is 0). Some people use estimates of the 5th and 95th quantile. This is generally preferrable, but in the context of PERT, those estimates are then transformed into a regular PERT estimate with upper and lower bounds (see for example this blog). The transformation that's currently used in ernie still has the finite boundaries problem but I'm hoping to tackle it soon, together with the addition of some actual risk measures for project duration.

Features (planned)

• Critical path: milestones
• Risk measures
• Export samples to CSV

Maybe features

• Calendar - map project days to calendar days
• Resource planning (maybe?)
• Combine plan with progress data

Packages

• ernie Implements PERT charts
• floyd-warshall Implements the Floyd-Warshall algorithm. Based on a blog post by Russell O'Connor

Contributing

Contributions are welcome!