Well studied for its direct impact, Climate Change is recently found to have the potential to weaken government and sociality and increase of instability in a vulnerable state. In this paper, a synthesized method is developed to evaluate the impact of climate change on regional fragility.
In task 1, we collect and analyze many indicators that influence a state’s fragility, and classify them into 4 categories. After that, we select 16 indicators as our final assessment indicators. In our model, we use Fragility Score to evaluate a state’s fragility considering both direct and indirect impact from climate change. In stage 1, we combine both Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy Method to calculate the impact in a more balanced way. We adjust the proportion of Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy method to improve the performance. In stage 2, we modify our model to get better evaluation results.
In task 2, we select Sudan as our simulation target. The rising temperature and exacerbating desertification will increase Sudan’s fragility. Furthermore, we use our model to show that Sudan will be less fragile without those climate change effects.
In task 3, we select Bangladesh to illustrate how climate change may push a country to be more fragile. According to the trend of 24 different countries’ fragility score, we define the tipping point to assess when a country will become more fragile. We predict every indicator’s value of Bangladesh in the future 10 years by Artificial Neural Network. We get the fragile score of Bangladesh in the future 10 years and explain the fragility variation of Bangladesh.
In task 4, we categorize some state driven interventions. We select some specific interventions in Sudan and Bangladesh and illustrate effect and cost of these interventions.
In task 5, we find the fragility scores of Russia and Singapore keep a consistency with the results proposed by the Fragile State Index, which demonstrates a relatively great applicability.