This is a Python script that replicates some features of Nate Silver's 538 Election Forecasting Model. It is more of an example of how to conduct data analysis in Python using pandas and statsmodels. Consider it a starting point for doing more complex analyses with Python rather than a real forecasting model.

The polling data is up to date as of 10/2/2012. For some reason Real Clear Politics stopped allowing directory access to their servers, so if you want to update the polling data, you'll have to update the script to walk the links on their site. This should be trivial, I just don't have the time.

Pull requests are welcome. Suggestions and comments on anything from the programming to the modeling are also welcome.

The third-party packages used are

• matplotlib
• numpy
• pandas
• scikit-learn
• scipy
• statsmodels