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Analyis of the evolution of covid-19 cases with time

Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions.

Main report is here: https://jmoldon.github.io/coronavirus_analysis/cvid_report.html

Data comes from Johns Hopkins University that is updated daily.

Some sample plots

Response comparison China vs the rest

Individual countries

Changelog

2020-05-16

2020-05-08

  • Fix bug related with how to read user-defined initial guess of parameters

2020-05-07

  • New function to fit. Now it can be pure exponential, logistic or double logistic (two contatenated logistics to account for changes in the propagation rate)
  • The new option has more free parameters, so it is more sensitive to bad data (like large jumps) and initial conditions.

2020-04-11

  • Add plot of deaths per day for 12 countries combined
  • Fix date tick labels to be one per week (on Mondays)
  • More clear date tick label format

2020-04-04

  • Add plots for Spain by Comunidades Autónomas

2020-03-25

  • Added prediction to the number of deaths per day plot
  • Changed zorder of Active plots to be lower

2020-03-24

  • Have to change the source of data because JHU has changed the format unconsistently and have removed the Recovered data

2020-03-23

  • Add increments to all predictions

2020-03-22

  • Add stripes to show rate of doubling cases every 2 days
  • Fix bug with case differences in the tables
  • Added USA per State in the global summary

2020-03-21

  • Major refactor of some functions
  • Now death rate (per day) is plotted

2020-03-17

  • Mayor refactoring and new functions.
  • Now the report displays predicted number of cases for the next 5 days
  • Included USA as aggregated country
  • Included Poland
  • bound_threshold parameter to manually disable confidence intervals
  • Add global plots of evolution of most affected countries over time

2020-03-16

  • Better determination of exponential curve.
  • exponential or logistic function is automatically selected based on goodness of fit

2020-03-15

  • Add confidence interval calculation. Add Germany

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Some exploratory analysis on the coronavirus evolution

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