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2022 Football World Cup Monte Carlo simulations, based on ELO ratings

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qatar2022-elo-simulation

Simulation of 2022 FIFA World Cup, based on ELO ratings

1 000 000 simulations illustrated [in PL]: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O-9eeGCxWnFwgZy3XfEVjRs6ErOu1sMvsD51MnvRZqg/

Modeling

modeling_report.pdf - quick pdf report from what is done in all of the other modeling files. Here is written about methodology of simulation
stspaste.txt - pasted data from a bookmaker, used in model_making.py
model_making.py - generates model_res.csv and bookmaker_we.csv
model_res.csv - data from bookmaker, win expectancy and prob. of scoring n goals
bookmaker_we - list of 48 win expectations from bookmaker in WC 2022 group stage
modeling.R - file covering things done in a pdf report

Simulating

copiedwebsite.txt - copied https://eloratings.net/2022_World_Cup as html
simulation_handling.py - simulation structure and generating result files: champs.csv, all_matches.csv, groups.csv, elo_we.csv
tournament.py - simulation of whole tournament, runnable

Analyzing

analysis.R - script processing data generated in python simulation files

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2022 Football World Cup Monte Carlo simulations, based on ELO ratings

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