Small python code for computing game win probability for HABA's "jeu du verger" and "premier verger", building the full tree diagram recursively.
The probability to win "jeu du verger" if approximately 68.40%, and the probability to win "premier verger" is approximately 76.85% (the exact probabilities are given by the fractions below).
$ python3 verger.py
Jeu du verger
10595284893584715037488264068514156177970969647014229623087623/15489107002921234981941411840000000000000000000000000000000000
0.6840474981279716
Premier verger
158790110629553964611971/206624260800000000000000
0.7684969326194147