PDFs of my articles, published, in press and unpublished. Preprints are available for the later two.

DISCLAIMER: the PDFs in this site are for my personal use. By clicking/downloading them it is assumed you have the correct permissions (??) to access them. Yep, that's how we do Science, apparently; behind paywalls... Go figure...

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Peer-reviewed papers

1. F. P. Camara, A. L. Gomes, Carvalho, L. M., and L. G. Castello, “Dynamic behavior of sylvatic Yellow fever in Brazil (1954-2008),” Rev Soc Bras Med Trop, vol. 44, no. 3, pp. 297–299, 2011. [link] [PDF].
2. Carvalho, L. M. and F. P. Camara, “Epidemiological aspects of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in older Brazilians: a comparative approach,” Braz J Infect Dis, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 34–37,2012. [link] [PDF].
3. F. P. Camara, Carvalho, L. M., and A. L. Gomes, “Demographic profile of sylvatic yellow fever in Brazil from 1973 to 2008” Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg, vol. 107, pp. 324–327, May 2013. [doi] [PDF].
4. Carvalho, L. M., L. B. Santos, N. R. Faria, and W. de Castro Silveira, “Phylogeography of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype O in Ecuador” Infect Genet Evol, vol. 13, pp. 76–88, Jan 2013. [link] [PDF].
5. F. Bielejec, P. Lemey, Carvalho, L. M., G. Baele, A. Rambaut, and M. A. Suchard, “BUSS: a parallel BEAST/BEAGLE utility for sequence simulation under complex evolutionary scenarios,” BMC Bioinformatics, vol. 15, p. 133, 2014. [link] [PDF].
6. D. Mir, H. Romero, Carvalho, L. M., and G. Bello, “Spatiotemporal dynamics of DENV-2 Asian-American genotype lineages in the Americas,” PLoS ONE, vol. 9, no. 6, p. e98519, 2014. [link] [PDF].
7. F. C. Coelho and Carvalho, L. M., “Estimating the attack ratio of dengue epidemics under time-varying force of infection using aggregated notification data,” Scientific Reports, vol. 5, 2015. [link] [PDF] [repo/data].
8. A. Rambaut, T. T. Lam, Carvalho, L. M., and O. G. Pybus, “Exploring the temporal structure of heterochronous sequences using tempest (formerly Path-O-Gen),” Virus Evolution, vol. 2, no. 1,p. vew007, 2016. [link] [PDF].
9. A. Rambaut, G. Dudas, Carvalho, L. M., D. J. Park, N. L. Yozwiak, E. C. Holmes, and K. G. Andersen, “Comment on mutation rate and genotype variation of ebola virus from Mali case sequences,” Science, vol. 353, no. 6300, pp. 658–658, 2016. [repo/data] [link] [PDF]
10. C. Codeço, D. Villela, M. F. Gomes, L. Bastos, O. Cruz, C. Struchiner, Carvalho, L. M., and F. Coelho, “Zika is not a reason for missing the olympic games in Rio de janeiro: response to the open letter of dr attaran and colleagues to Dr Margaret Chan, director-general, WHO, on the Zika threat to the olympic and paralympic games,” Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, vol. 111, no. 6, pp. 414–415, 2016. [link] [PDF].
11. W. E. Diehl, A. E. Lin, N. D. Grubaugh, Carvalho, L. M., K. Kim, P. P. Kyawe, S. M. McCauley, E. Donnard, A. Kucukural, P. McDonel, et al., “Ebola virus glycoprotein with increased infectivity dominated the 2013–2016 epidemic,” Cell, vol. 167, no. 4, pp. 1088–1098, 2016. [link] [PDF] [repo/data].
12. F. C. Coelho, B. Durovni, V. Saraceni, C. Lemos, C. T. Codeco, S. Camargo, Carvalho, L. M., L. Bastos, D. Arduini, D. A. Villela, et al., “Higher incidence of Zika in adult women than adult men in Rio de Janeiro suggests a significant contribution of sexual transmission from men to women,” International Journal of Infectious Diseases, vol. 51, pp. 128–132, 2016. [link] [PDF].
13. D. A. Villela, L. Bastos, Carvalho, L. M., O. G. Cruz, M. F. Gomes, B. Durovni, M. C. Lemos, V. Saraceni, F. C. Coelho, and C. T. Codeco, “Zika in Rio de Janeiro: Assessment of basic reproduction number and comparison with dengue outbreaks,” Epidemiology and Infection, pp. 1–9,2017. [link] [PDF].
14. G. Dudas, L. M. Carvalho, T. Bedford, A. J. Tatem, G. Baele, N. R. Faria, D. J. Park, J. T. Ladner, A. Arias, D. Asogun, et al., “Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the ebola epidemic,” Nature, vol. 544, no. 7650, pp. 309–315, 2017.[link] [bioarXiv] [PDF] [repo/data].
15. G. Dudas, Carvalho, L. M., A. Rambaut, and T. Bedford, “MERS-CoV spillover at the camel- human interface,” eLife, vol. 7, p. e31257, 2018. [bioarXiv] [repo/data] [link] [PDF]
16. Vasconcellos LR, Carvalho LM, Silveira FA, Gonçalves IC, Coelho FS, Talyuli OA, e Silva TL, Bastos LS, Sorgine MH, Reis LA, Dias FA. "Natural infection by the protozoan Leptomonas wallacei impacts the morphology, physiology, reproduction, and lifespan of the insect Oncopeltus fasciatus". Scientific Reports. 2019 Nov 25;9(1):1-3. [link].
17. Santos LB, Carvalho LM, Seron W, Coelho FC, Macau EE, Quiles MG, Monteiro AM. "How do urban mobility (geo) graph’s topological properties fill a map?". Applied Network Science. 2019 Dec;4(1):1-4. [link].
18. Candido DS, Claro IM, De Jesus JG, Souza WM, Moreira FR, Dellicour S, Mellan TA, Du Plessis L, Pereira RH, Sales FC, Manuli ER. "Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil". Science. 2020 Sep 4;369(6508):1255-60. [link] [PDF].
19. Karcher MD, Carvalho LM, Suchard MA, Dudas G, Minin VN. "Estimating effective population size changes from preferentially sampled genetic sequences". PLoS Computational Biology. 2020 Oct 12;16(10):e1007774 [link].
20. Carvalho, LM, Ibrahim, JG. "On the normalized power prior". Statistics in Medicine. 2021; 40: 5251– 5275. [arXiv] [link] [PDF] [data/code].
21. Niquini RP, Lana RM, Pacheco AG, Cruz OG, Coelho FC, Carvalho LM, Villela DA, Gomes MF, Bastos LS. "Description and comparison of demographic characteristics and comorbidities in SARI from COVID-19, SARI from influenza, and the Brazilian general population". Cadernos de Saude Publica. 2020 Jul 24;36. [link].
22. Lana RM, Freitas LP, Codeço CT, Pacheco AG, Carvalho LM, Villela DA, Coelho FC, Cruz OG, Niquini RP, Porto VB, Gava C. Identification of priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil. Cadernos de Saude Publica. 2021 Oct 8;37. [link].

Chapters & conference papers

1. Carvalho, L.M., L. Santos, P. Pereira, and W. Silveira, “Phylodynamics of foot-and-mouth disease virus: a complex network approach,” in Proceedings of the 10th Brazilian Conference on Dynamics, Control and Their Applications, Brazilian Society for Applied and Computational Mathematics,2011. [link] [PDF].
2. Carvalho, L. M., C. Struchiner, and L. Bastos, “Bayesian inference of deterministic population growth models,” in Interdisciplinary Bayesian Statistics (A. Polpo de Campos, F. Neto, L. Ramos-Rifo, J. Stern, and M. Lauretto, eds.), vol. 118, pp. 217–228, Springer Verlag, 1st ed., 2015. [link] [PDF] [data/code].
3. Bastos LS, Carvalho LM, Gomes MF. "Modelling misreported data". Building a Platform for Data-Driven Pandemic Prediction: From Data Modelling to Visualisation-The CovidLP Project. 2021 Sep 13:113. [link] [PDF] [code].
4. CODEÇO, C. T., VILLELA, D. A. M., COELHO, F. C., BASTOS, L. S., CARVALHO, L. M., GOMES, M. F. C., CRUZ, O. G., and LANA, R. M. "Estimativa de risco de espalhamento da Covid-19 no Brasil e avaliação da vulnerabilidade socioeconômica nas microrregiões brasileiras". In: FREITAS,C. M., BARCELLOS, C., and VILLELA, D. A. M., eds. COVID-19 no Brasil: cenários epidemiológicos e vigilância em saúde (online). Rio de Janeiro: Observatório Covid-19 Fiocruz; Editora Fiocruz, 2021, pp. 75-84. Informação para ação na Covid-19 series. ISBN: 978-65-5708-049-8. [link].
5. LANA, R. M., CODEÇO, C. T., SANTOS, R. V., CUNHA, B., COELHO, F. C., CRUZ, O.G., CALDAS, A. D. R., SOUZA, M. C., BASTOS, L. S., PONTES, A. L. M., GOMES, M. L. C., TAVARES, I. N., DAL’ASTA, A. P., RORATO, A. C., ESCADA, M. I. S., CARVALHO, L. M., VILLELA, D. A. M., DAMASCO, F. S., and CARDOSO, A. M. "Vulnerabilidade das populações indígenas à pandemia de Covid-19 no Brasil e os desafios para o seu monitoramento".In: FREITAS, C. M., BARCELLOS, C., and VILLELA, D. A. M., eds. COVID-19 no Brasil: cenários epidemiológicos e vigilância em saúde (online). Rio de Janeiro: Observatório Covid-19 Fiocruz; Editora Fiocruz, 2021, pp. 127-142. Informação para ação na Covid-19 series. ISBN: 978-65-5708-049-8. [link].

Unpublished

1. Carvalho LM, Faria NR, Perez AM, Suchard MA, Lemey P, Silveira WD, Rambaut A, Baele G. "Spatio-temporal dynamics of foot-and-mouth disease virus in South America". arXiv preprint arXiv:1505.01105. 2015 May 5. [PDF] [Revised PDF] [code].
2. Kubinec R, Carvalho L, Barceló J, Cheng C, Messerschmidt L, Duba D, Cottrell MS. "Fear, Partisanship and the Spread of COVID-19 in the United States". 2020. [PDF].
3. Coelho FC, Carvalho LM, Lana RM, Cruz OG, Bastos LS, Codeço CT, Gomes MF, Villela D. "Modeling the post-containment elimination of transmission of COVID-19". medRxiv. 2020 Jan 1. [PDF].
4. Villela DA, de Noronha TG, Bastos LS, Pacheco AG, Cruz OG, Carvalho LM, Codeço CT, Gomes MF, Coelho FC, Freitas LP, Lana RM. "Effectiveness of Mass Vaccination in Brazil against Severe COVID-19 Cases". medRxiv. 2021 Jan 1. [PDF].