The goal of this project is to intuitively present Bayesian updating for Bernoulli trials (trials with 2 outcomes - success or failure.). See dashboard here.
The dashboard enables you to input outcomes of trials and then observe posteriors for a probability of success. It allows you to use different prior distributions: uniform, step, and normal.
Clone the project. Run make app in your terminal (inside project folder). Bam!
This project was inspired by an earth tossing example (chapter 2) from Statistical Rethinking by Richard McElreath. I find the book to be a great resource to dive into Bayesian statistics.
- Legend for a prior.
- Plot should display only priors even if there's no uesr input.
- Add plot with 95% highest posterior density (HPDI) and percentile (PI) intervals over trials.
- Add prediction plot based on all data.
- Refactor code into Shiny modules.