GitHub - mpenn114/Euro_2020_Predictor: This repository contains the code that won the Royal Statistical Society Euro 2020 Predictor competition.

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This repository contains the code that won the Royal Statistical Society Euro 2020 Predictor competition.

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Name		Name	Last commit message	Last commit date
Latest commit History 9 Commits
ExistenceCheck.m		ExistenceCheck.m
FinalEuroPredictorCode.m		FinalEuroPredictorCode.m
PredictionsToMake.csv		PredictionsToMake.csv
Q.m		Q.m
R.m		R.m
README		README
ResultProbs.m		ResultProbs.m
UniquenessCheck.m		UniquenessCheck.m
results.csv		results.csv

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EURO 2020 Prediction Code

This repository contains the code used to win the Royal Statisical Society's Euro 2020 Prediction Competition.
The main code can be found in the file "FinalEuroPredictor.m".

The code is based on a simple double Poisson model, where each team A is given an attacking strength O_A 
and a defensive vulnerability V_A. Then, the goals scored by team A against team B are assumed to be Poisson 
distributed with mean O_A * V_B.

While the code is currently set up to predict Euro 2020, it is simple to change it to work for another 
football tournament. One simply needs a CSV file containing previous results between the teams in the
tournament, and another file containing the matches that need to be predicted. These files should mimic
the format of the two CSV files contained in this repository.

Note that the results.csv file was taken from 
https://www.kaggle.com/martj42/international-football-results-from-1872-to-2017