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mschauer committed May 17, 2018
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35 changes: 23 additions & 12 deletions example/MicrostructureNoise.ipynb
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"source": [
"# MicrostructureNoise\n",
"\n",
"## Introduction\n",
"\n",
"(Available as Jupyter notebook at https://github.com/mschauer/MicrostructureNoise.jl/blob/master/example/MicrostructureNoise.ipynb)\n",
"\n",
"`MicrostructureNoise` is a Julia package for Bayesian volatility estimation in presence of market microstructure noise implementing the methodology described in our new preprint: \n",
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"This blogpost gives a short introduction.\n",
"\n",
"\n",
"## Description\n",
"### Description\n",
"\n",
"MicrostructureNoise estimates the volatility function $s$ of the stochastic differential equation\n",
"\n",
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"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Setup\n",
"### Setup\n",
"\n",
"Install `MicrostructureNoise` via the package manager. \n",
"```\n",
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"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"# Real data example\n",
"## Real data example\n",
"\n",
"As a first example, we apply our methodology to infer volatility of the high frequency foreign exchange rate data made available by Pepperstone Limited, the London based forex broker (https://pepperstone.com/uk/client-resources/historical-tick-data). Specifically, we use the EUR/USD tick data (bid prices) for 2 March 2015. We retrieve, log-transform and subsample the data and express time in milliseconds."
]
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"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"# How good does it work: Test with the Heston model"
"## How good does it work: Test with the Heston model"
]
},
{
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},
"source": [
"## Generate data from the Heston model\n",
"### Generate data from the Heston model\n",
"\n",
"To define the model in Julia and to simulate the trajectory use the package `Bridge`.\n",
"Install it via the package manager. \n",
"```\n",
"Pkg.add(\"Bridge\")\n",
"```\n",
"Usually we would not with $S$ directly, but with its logarithm $X_t=\\log S_t$. Here we simulate $S$ directly for simplicity."
"Usually we would not work with $S$ directly, but with its logarithm $X_t=\\log S_t$. Here we simulate $S$ directly for simplicity."
]
},
{
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"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"Generate a sample path with the Euler scheme from correlated Brownian motions, $\\log$-transform and subsample the data. Also we now the true volatility of of the transformed process by Itô's formula."
"Generate a sample path with the Euler scheme from correlated Brownian motions, $\\log$-transform and subsample the data. Also we now the true volatility of the transformed process by Itô's formula."
]
},
{
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"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Perform inference using `MicrostructureNoise`.\n",
"### Perform inference using `MicrostructureNoise`.\n",
"\n",
"This proceeds along the same lines as before."
]
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"The greyish band mostly covers the red curve, the true volatility.\n",
"\n",
"This is nice: Without even using the knowledge of the model, completely ignoring the drift, \n",
"we still get a nice estimate and reasonable uncertainty quantification of the underlying volatility, and that using from indirect and \n",
"erroneous observations.\n",
"we still get a nice estimate and reasonable uncertainty quantification of the underlying volatility, and that having only indirect and \n",
"erroneous observations at our hands.\n",
"\n",
"A histogram confirms that also the estimate of the observations noise is good."
"A histogram confirms that also the estimate of the observations noise is close to the true value."
]
},
{
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"\n",
"* Shota Gugushvili, Frank van der Meulen, Moritz Schauer, and Peter Spreij: Nonparametric Bayesian volatility estimation. [arxiv:1801.09956](https://arxiv.org/abs/1801.09956), 2018.\n",
"\n",
"* Shota Gugushvili, Frank van der Meulen, Moritz Schauer, and Peter Spreij: Nonparametric Bayesian volatility learning under microstructure noise. In preparation."
"* Shota Gugushvili, Frank van der Meulen, Moritz Schauer, and Peter Spreij: Nonparametric Bayesian volatility learning under microstructure noise. [arxiv:1805.05606](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.05606), 2018."
]
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{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
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"collapsed": true
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"source": []
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"metadata": {
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