- Last year the Celtics finished with the 5th worst record in the NBA. Whether it’s two years from now or twenty years from now, what pick are the Celtics more likely to land first, the #1 pick or the #5 pick? Assume that the lottery odds and structure remain the same going forward. Further assume that the Celtics are likely to improve and every year the team will either:
- Improve by 3 positions (e.g. they go from 5th worst to 8th worst) with a probability of 0.6
- OR fall 2 positions (e.g. they go from 5th worst to 3rd worst) with a probability of 0.4.